Presidential Election Argument Analysis

Campaigns in politics are important in determining outcomes and inform the voters who remain undecided. Also, campaigns matter because although the candidates or media officials may know what the outcome will be, the voters themselves do not (107). Aside from campaigns, conventions are also important, if not more important. Party nominating conventions affect the apathetic, uninterested electorates who think conventions are interesting and exciting, often known as the Olympic games of politics (121). This experience for voters can carry influence, and is a time of “intense political learning” (129). Therefore, aggregately, conventions make public opinion meaningful because the citizens who watch make an informed decision about a candidate, and have facts about why they will vote for that candidate. The chief reason why individual public opinion is meaningless during presidential elections is the “nonattitudes.” Nonattitudes are survey responses made up on the spot during an interview by a respondent who has no attitude on politics (113). Therefore, these individuals diminish the value of public opinion because we hate inconsistency and this creates an abundance of views on issues. However, during election night, exit polls support why aggregate opinion is also important. Exit polls are meaningful because one hundred percent of those leaving the polls have voted (102). Therefore, we can get real results from the electorates and this makes collective public opinion

I wasn’t familiar with the term straw polls nor where it originated from. The text said that these were the first attempts in charting popular sentiments on a large scale, however this was not a scientific poll. This was developed by newspapers in the nineteenth century. They are also very prevalent today and can be seen on many media outlets.

3.     How much public opinion polls should influence the conduct of American foreign policy. American foreign policy should be heavily influenced by the public opinion polls as long as the public has enough information about the issue to make an intelligent decision. However, if the American government is keeping secrets from the people that need to be considered when concerning the conduct of American foreign policy, then the polls should not influence it.

analysts attributed the polls ' failure largely to completing their surveys too early, thus missing a late swing in voter sentiment in favor of the President.

In this article, there is a disagreement between the smaller(or less populated) states, and the larger states. The disagreement is over the Electoral College. Every state gets the same number of Electoral College votes as however many members of congress they have. This increases the impact of small states. Some states have a winner-take-all system, in which the winner gets all electoral votes from that state. Larger states criticize the system of the Electoral College, saying that only a few states have say in the election. They push for a direct popular vote. On the other side, the smaller states say that without the Electoral College, they would be overlooked. Because of this, they refuse to switch to popular vote.

The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess

I think it is also worth noting that Green and Palmquist use the NES poll data in their study which bring us back to the first question which is how to accurately measure partisanship? If question asked by pools can heavily change the result of studies we need to know what question to ask when we are measuring short term variance and when we are measuring long term variance. I think the Gallup poll might be useful to measure the short term variance in macro partisanship and the NES and GSS poll might be effecting when it comes to long term shifts in partisanship. However these article failed to discuss the polls in general and find if the interviewed population is representative of the US population. Abramson and Ostrom also briefly talked about the effect telephone poll can have on polls result but it was discussed in depth. In last week Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green found positive effect of personal contract on voting. Doing interviews for polls might have better result than telephone

The first difference between the two polls exists with regards to the question, “Do you think the U.S. government is doing enough or not doing enough to prevent a future terrorist attack on American soil?” (See Appendix A for graphic depiction). Overall, the respondents in my convenience poll were more diverse in their response choice, with the largest percentage being those who think the Unite States Government was doing enough at 46.43% and the lowest percent being those who are unsure at 25%. This is only a 21.43 point gap. Whereas the scientific poll showed a

election to what they think the future will hold because of it. What is evident is that the polls

In this news article was published by CNN and the writer Heather Long talks about a model called Moody's Analytics. A model used a data and information from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. All the data generate and the Moody could predict who is gonna win on U.S Presidential Election. Moody analysis the winning percentage of a candidate. It shows that Moody favors Hillary of winning the election because it detects that she has better economic policies and also she has coalesced with the Former President Obama. Obama has a huge number of a follower who is likely to vote Clinton in this upcoming election. “The economy and Obama's rising popularity are likely to make the difference to those coveted few undecided voters, according to the Moody's model.” Long (paragraph) This a bold statement that not all voters or Obama follower are going to vote for Clinton.

The fight for the position as president is not over until every vote has been counted and tallied,therefore I feel polls are somewhat pointless for voters to predict who will win. I feel polls and other predictors of that nature are simply to tell candidates what they are doing wrong to give them a chance to become more well liked. While I see nothing wrong with using the polls and comments from others to brush up on your image a bit some voters do. Hillary went from being thought of as cold and closed minded in the 90’s to being painted as too open to new ideas now in 2016. I do not feel it is fair the way American people take the presidential candidates and pick them apart. They are people who wish to run the country to make it a better place for us to live. Many Americans seem to lose sight of what really matters in these presidential elections. However there are some still some around that want what's best for America, and hopefully the voters will stop and think about what they feel is best before they rule out a candidate just because they are not

In our globalized world, a realistic view of the attitudes of those from outside the United States is becoming increasingly necessary. When the organization began as the American Institute of American Opinion in 1935, it focused primarily on what determining what the average American consumer wanted from a company. Soon though, its methods were proven to be highly successful when they accurately predicted President Franklin’s victory in the 1936 election. Now, Gallup supplies objective political, economic, and social polls of citizens of more than 160 countries through its world poll network. Its success on an international level derives from its ability to tailor its methods to the country that the company is currently surveying. This flexibility based on region, combined with a rigid procedure for carrying out the survey, as well as a system of randomization to help ensure an even sample of the population being surveyed, make the Gallup poll one of the most successful of polls worldwide, in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

What makes a poll bias? polls can be easily altered to a one sided point of understanding or opinion from

Berger argues that a pollster is a well-known figure whose main objective is to gather public opinions and views on issues of varying interests and market trends. However, pollster methods of data collection resemble those applied in sociological research.

In my observations for some years of American politics, opinion polls always tells the truth of what would transpired.