PROPOSED CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER A1B SCENARIO IN KASHMIR VALLEY, JAMMU AND KASHMIR
ABSTRACT
The decision support tool viz. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale climate data of future years for Kashmir province of Jammu & Kashmir state. The 21st century projected data for the A1B scenario was adjusted by using observed climatic data recorded during the period 1985-2015 for the region. The data from the same period was taken as the baseline for the analysis. This data was thereon analyzed for monthly, seasonal, cropping season and annual periods to enumerate the variation of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Kashmir valley of Jammu & Kashmir state in the 21st century. The modelled data obtained exhibited no significant change in maximum and minimum temperature for the period 2021-2050 but for the same period increase in annual precipitation was exhibited. For the period 2051-2100, decreasing trend of annual temperature was exhibited whereas for annual precipitation, an increasing trend was exhibited.
Keywords: Climate change, SDSM model, A1B scenario
INTRODUCTION
Throughout the previous century, rise in temperature and surge in CO2 concentration because of innumerable factors comprising alteration land usage pattern [4] and greenhouse gas (GHG) emanations from agricultural and industrial zones [7], have caused variations in the earth’s climate. This surge in the GHG’s emanation is expected to impact the earth’s temperature,
In the last 100 years, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased, causing the Earth to warm by an average of 0.6 degrees celsius, largely a result of burning fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and land use changes increased for food production. The basic science is straightforward and climate researchers have shown that gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and others can trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, causing a phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect. Human activities such as industry, transport, energy generation and deforestation all produce these greenhouse gases. In the last 20 years, concern has grown that global warming is inevitable and now considered most probably caused by man-made increases in
Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world?s climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with
The Earth has been experiencing a considerable amount of climate change for the last several decades. Natural factors that contribute to the climate system consist of: solar output, volcanic activity and earth’s orbit around the sun. The two factors relevant on timescales of contemporary climate exist in volcanic activity and changes in solar radiation. The earth’s energy balance primarily influences the amount of incoming energy from volcanic eruptions, which have a relatively short-term effect on climate. Changes in solar output have contributed greatly to climate trends over the past century. The effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been at least ten times that of changes in the Sun’s output and the ocean covers more than 70 percent of the earth’s surface, receiving twice the amount of earth’s radiation. Although the sun is the engine that drives all the weather, oceans and atmosphere control the sun 's energy along certain
Global warming and climate change attributed to increased emission of greenhouse gases have continued to be pressing issues in today’s society since they threaten the stability of the climate, population, and economy of the world (“Meeting the Energy Challenge”, 2007). The challenges associated with global warming and climate change is attributed to the fact that 75 percent of world’s carbon dioxide
Climate change is evident throughout the world and is a major issue. It is no secret that our planet is getting warmer. Global warming is now recognized in the scientific community as a real problem. There are multiple aspects that are causing this issue. Majority of the warming is caused by greenhouse gases. Volcanic eruptions and changes in the intensity of solar radiation have offset the warming partially. It is estimated that average annual temperatures will increase 3.5°F-9.5°F by the century’s end.
The authors describes that greatly increasing Carbon dioxide gas in the earth atmosphere bring about rising of earth temperature. A greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide, is an unaware emission product of human activities such as industrial, transportation, and human facilities. Scientist wisely claim that only 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit rising have made change in weather patterns and sea water level in this century. The earth temperature rising come up with many plants and animals die out. Moreover, dropped agriculture products effect 1 percent global economic losses.
The first argument examined on the man-made global warning side is that increasing greenhouse gases caused by human activities is causing directly observed climate changes. The first resulting climate change discussed is warming global surface temperature. There has been an increase in global surface temperature of 0.74 degrees C since the late 19th century. In the last 50 years alone the temperature has increased by 0.13 degrees C per decade. North America and Eurasia have seen the largest increase in warmth. However, some areas of the earth have actually cooled some this past century (Easterling & Karl, 2011, para6). After the mid 20th century 70% of the global land mass saw reduced diurnal temperatures. From 1979 to 2005 the maximum and minimum temperatures have shown no change; both indicate warming (Easterling & Karl, 2011, para10). Furthermore, borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data all seem to agree with recent warming (Easterling & Karl, 2011, para11).
Climate change is a rising issue of importance in our day and age, and one that is threatening our global society on many levels. In the past few decades, scientists have discovered that our planet’s climate has been changing at an alarming rate. The way in which we have changed the land to
Over the past century there is a drastic change on Earth's Atmosphere mainly because of interference of human activities like using fossil fuels as a source of energy, and emission of greenhouse gases due to industrial processes.These activities have release a large amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases causing Earth’s average temperature to rise by 1.4’ and is expected to rise up to 11.5’F such changes can result in undesirable consequences.
Climate change or colloquially known as global warming, now pose a new threat to civilization as the levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) are soaring to new levels. The most significant contributor to greenhouse gasses would be Carbon Dioxide (Co2). The levels of Carbon Dioxide (Co2) gas have risen to levels civilization has not seen before. As such, the effects of these levels are not known to civilization as data gathered from the ice cores drilled in the Antarctica only shows data up to 650,000 years ago. However we can conclude that present CO2 concentrations are higher compared to any time in the last 650,000 years (IPCC 2007). Current carbon dioxide concentrations are hovering around 389 parts per million (ppm) as of September 2011,
Climate change is influenced by the greenhouse effect which is the increase of Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone and Nitrogen Oxide. On one hand, the presence of these gases in the atmosphere make the earth habitable with respect to regulating the earth’s temperature. However, an increase in the concentration of these gases results in trapping energy in the atmosphere and this in turn increases earth’s temperature. “Global greenhouse gas emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between
Current data reveals that the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the earth's atmosphere is approximately 387 parts per million, which is roughly a 31% increase in the period 1750 to 2009. Consequently, it is evident that such increases in temperatures have caused a warmer planet (7). It is also evident that it is impossible to reverse the developments of industrial revolution. This means that as the advancements of industrial revolution continue and as energy demands increases, it is possible that this trend of climate change will continue for decades to come (McAloon, 8). The consent of the climate research community is that it most likely already affects climate noticeably and will compel significant
In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and agriculture have caused the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to increase substantially. A marked rise in the global temperature has been related to these human activities and CO2 emissions, and this temperature rise is believed to be the result of an enhancement of the natural Greenhouse effect. And as a result, global warming arises.This awareness has led many researchers to investigate possible causes and effects of this temperature rise. However, as much knowledge about the climate system is lacking, numerous researches on that issue have led to a great deal of debate. At the moment, the way the climate system will respond to these human activities is difficult to predict, for too many processes are not understood well enough. One absolute reality though is the fact that the global climate system will respond to increasing temperatures. Moreover, this response could have irreversible consequences for the habitability
First uncertainty comes from climate change impacted assessment is due to various scenarios with climate models. The probable emission scenarios are helping to predict future climate through modeling studies which represents the inherent uncertainty of climate change effects on rice yield due to government policy, and introducing new
Nowadays, one of the most difficult problems is Global Warming. It is obvious that increasing in earth's temperature has made significant negative effects on earth's climate during the last few