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Proposed Climate Change Under A1b Scenario

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PROPOSED CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER A1B SCENARIO IN KASHMIR VALLEY, JAMMU AND KASHMIR
ABSTRACT
The decision support tool viz. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale climate data of future years for Kashmir province of Jammu & Kashmir state. The 21st century projected data for the A1B scenario was adjusted by using observed climatic data recorded during the period 1985-2015 for the region. The data from the same period was taken as the baseline for the analysis. This data was thereon analyzed for monthly, seasonal, cropping season and annual periods to enumerate the variation of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Kashmir valley of Jammu & Kashmir state in the 21st century. The modelled data obtained exhibited no significant change in maximum and minimum temperature for the period 2021-2050 but for the same period increase in annual precipitation was exhibited. For the period 2051-2100, decreasing trend of annual temperature was exhibited whereas for annual precipitation, an increasing trend was exhibited.
Keywords: Climate change, SDSM model, A1B scenario
INTRODUCTION
Throughout the previous century, rise in temperature and surge in CO2 concentration because of innumerable factors comprising alteration land usage pattern [4] and greenhouse gas (GHG) emanations from agricultural and industrial zones [7], have caused variations in the earth’s climate. This surge in the GHG’s emanation is expected to impact the earth’s temperature,

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