The Drunkard 's Walk I Had Confirmation Bias

One example of bias is all the theorists and skeptics about why Amelia Earhart’s plane disappeared in 1937.

He analysis conformation bias, hindsight bias, self-serving bias, and other types. When talking about conformation bias McRaney analysis that we have constructed our thoughts and opinions based on information we have accumulated based on our beliefs, while ignoring what the information against other opinions. A form of conformation bias that McRaney uses in page twenty-seven is: When you talk about a movie you haven’t seen in a long time and all of a sudden you are surrounded by information of said movie, you believe that fate is trying to tell you something. In reality conformation bias is occurring. You are have noticed more information about the movie because you have dismissed any other information. We seek out information that only enhances our beliefs and discriminates against the facts. Hindsight bias is relatable because we look at newfound information and speculate that we had already known it all along. Hindsight bias isn’t necessarily good because we have tendency to always wanting to be right, so after learning something new we edit our memories so we seem more factual than what we really are. McRaney states on page thirty-three that studies are the best way to demonstrate hindsight bias for researchers. Researchers can write a false statement in an article and we manufacture this information as our truth. Another form of bias McRaney talked about was self-serving bias. Self-serving bias

In my opinion being bias has both good and bad characteristics. I believe the negative part of being bias is that you only think one sided and not open minded. You can 't be biased in some situations where you have to see both sides of view. A positive aspect is that you are consistent and not indecisive. If you have a passion or believe in something, then you will stay consistent with your decision.

Whether research is experimental or developmental, there are no guarantees of perfect study processes or results, since both random and systematic errors are expected. Errors and uncertainties of a study’s outcomes surface almost every time. Faulty, aged or incorrectly calibrated instruments, during an experiment, can lead to important alterations of results. Distracting environments definitely influence the outcome. Finally, the human parameter in the sense of having ability to properly operate instruments and correctly interpret measurements definitely consist another factor of imperfect research (Bell 7-9).

In terms of the anchoring bias, regularly revisit of the original decision based on the newly gathered data needs to be set up within the organization. Additionally, the decision maker should avoid the Confirmation Trap in which Bazerman and Moore (2009) argues that people tend to seek information that confirms their expectations and hypotheses. To recognize the bias, Mike Francis could

The law of large numbers, according to Yakir (2011) is the principle of probability that defines the sampling distribution of the average or mean for large samples. The more the number of trials increases, the more the actual proportion of events converges on the hypothetical ratio of outcomes. (p. 115-116)

The authors open with a scenario about whether it safer to drive, or walk home drunk. They give analytics regarding how many people drive drunk and the probability of being pulled over, ultimately coming to the conclusion that driving or walking drunk varies on the “per mile basis”(3). Throughout the story they talk about birth and how the time and place a baby is born can change the child's future, for instance being born during Ramadan or a pandemic can

In the video Don't Be Fooled By Bad Statistics posted by Emily Dressler three forms of bad statistics are discussed, poorly collected data, leading questions, and misuse if center. Information collected poorly will lead to misleading results and false conclusions. Dressler uses the example of data collected by researchers pertaining to magazine preference during business hours. The data is skewed because of the time of day the information was gleaned rendered the sample not representative of the entire population. Another form of bad statistics has to do with how the desired information was elicited. Leading questions may result in biased responses. Questions need to be worded carefully so the information collected is not influenced by the interviewer. Finally, the video talks about misuse of center. Data can be misleading if not appropriately analyzed. Outliers, an individual value that falls outside the overall pattern of data can prejudice the conclusion leading to incorrect assumptions. An example might be that of the man who drowned in a pond with an average dept of one inch. The pond was one quarter inch deep everywhere but in the center where there was a ten foot hole.

Biases, assumptions and interpretations affect all areas of study. In Science and History, for example, sexual, racial/cultural and personal experience biases significantly influence research. In addition, Perspectivism can empty research findings of all meaning, depending on whether the researcher believes facts exist independent of perspective. Acceptance of universal Perspectivism, combined with triangulated comparison from several sources, can result in "approximate truth."

In any series of random events an extraordinary event is most likely to be followed, due purely to chance, by a more ordinary one.

One thing which stood out in the text involving both of their ideas was the fact that Tversky had once thought of Kahneman to not be entirely accurate on his ideas. He had questioned Tversky on the basis that peoples’ opinions are subjective; that they differ person to person. An example of this was the coin toss discussed in chapter three of the text. Relating to the coin toss example, the idea that many made assumptions based off of ideas that are insignificant was of great importance and lead to a rejection by both Kahneman and Tversky on the effectiveness of predicted outcomes. In the text, the author states, “Even the fairest coin, given the limitations of its memory and moral sense, cannot be as fair as the gambler expects it to be”. This involves the idea that even when one is certain of the reasoning behind their assumptions, it is logical to assume that everything will not fit the expected outcomes of the reasoner behind it, and their attempt at directly relating the two

There are many everyday examples of people using confirmation bias behavior. A student doing research on only one side to an argument for a paper to confirm their thesis may fail to fully search the topic for information that is inconsistent with what they are writing about. Also a reporter who is writing an article on an important issue may only interview

One of the greatest dangers to scientific studies is the "confirmation bias". When a researcher is trying to collect documents and publications for what is studying or analyzing, it is very likely that only see, or just to notice what "it suits" for what he wants to prove. Moreover, even almost unconsciously, it is liable to see more quickly connections with other publications that seem to corroborate their investigations. Unfortunately, this "confirmation bias" affects not only scientific studies. It concerns us all. In today's article, I intend to show by example how to detect this phenomenon and some techniques to try to avoid it.

One disadvantage of using interpretivist methods of research is that they are unreliable. Usually interpretivist research methods depend on personal relationships established between the respondent and the researcher are therefore difficult for other researchers to repeat the research and get similar results showing no consistency between results.

These biases can lead to misrepresenting participants’ descriptions. Describing atypical individuals may lead to poor generalizations and detract from external validity.