Part 3 - Data and Methodology
3.1 Data Description The purpose of this study is to investigate the presence of January effect in emerging stock markets of four Southeast Asia countries: Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine and Indonesia, for the period of January 2012 until December 2015, which is the most recent period after the financial crisis in 2007-2008. The financial crisis would affect the behaviour of the stock markets and thus the stock price might not reflect its true value. As the most recent economic crisis is believed to have ended in Fall 2011 (Elliott 2011; Weisenthal 2013), this study will focus on the most recent 4-year period, from January 2012 until December 2015. The four Southeast Asia countries are selected because there are limited studies about them. Furthermore, they are the only Southeast Asia countries being included in MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of 2016. Thus it is worth examining the efficiency of the stock markets of these high growth emerging markets.
Daily equity market indices for four Southeast Asia countries will be collected from Yahoo Finance and DataStream. The daily price index is collected instead of monthly price index because this study attempts to examine if the January effect is stronger on the first five days of January. The indices are FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (KLCI) for Malaysia, SET Index for Thailand, Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi) for Philippine and IDX Composite Index for Indonesia. Since these
In order to study how stock prices react to these events, approximate three years of continuous daily stock price are chose, beginning at 17th March 2008 and ending more than three months after the final event at 22nd April 2011. In addition, SHANGHAI Stock Exchange Index (SSE) is adopted as a proxy of the market portfolio.
A great number of studies further identified several factors which particularly concerns market capitalisation, effective of stock market, etc., which explains the dynamic forces of stocks returns during the earnings announcements date in an organised manner. For instance, Atiase (1985) found that unexpected information pass on to the market by actual earnings report is inversely correlated to the company’s capitalisation. Grant (1990) observed that the market in which a company’s securities are traded often determined the behaviour of stocks return around the earnings announcements. Several other studies have aimed to organise for synchronise factors by using time series data such as intra-day and daily data. However, a fairly number of more robust studies has examined the information content of macroeconomics news releases. Elsharkawy and Garrod (1996), Pope and Inyangete (1992).
In the last three months of 2008, under the general decline in the global stock market, numerous Asian stock markets were in free fall. The key stock index such as Nikkei 225 in Japan, Hangseng in Hongkong and Sensex in India suffered significant drops. (Rose & Spiegel, 2009)
The second and chief objective is to assess the impact of the crisis on the foreign exchange and stock markets. The report answers why the crisis adversely affected the Latin American market indices while the US market indices continued to rise.
Major stock market indices globally are trading near the high levels of 2007-2008. Some countries like India have surpassed the previous highs of 2008, and are trading comfortably higher (^BSE, Jan 2008: 20,000 approx.; May 2016: 25,000
The United States stock market has experienced many interesting events this year, testing the nerves of millions of people around the world. The market started the year with the worst two-week performance in its history, creating a lot of uncertainty for the year to come. A severe decline in oil prices caused many firms within the energy industry to suffer. However, despite these negative events, gold saw its best quarter in 30 years, the market had a large reversal, and oil has been recovering. These volatile movements provided an amazing opportunity to make money for investors, relief for those who had holdings during this time, and a better outlook for firms. Two firms that have had an interesting year so far are ExxonMobil Corp. and Apple Inc. Exxon has experienced the effects of macroeconomic variables, while Apple has had some internal issues that lead to some stock price fluctuations.
The project is based on analyzing the 40 scrip’s and preparing a portfolio of 20 scrip’s and evaluates the performance of portfolio for the next one year. The sample size is 40 companies stocks. The company stocks are chosen based on their nature 1) Aggressive in nature (β>1).2) Conservative in nature (β<1) and 3).Balanced in nature (β=1).The portfolio performance is compared with various mutual funds and with market to pullout or adds some companies according to their performances. The virtual money investing in the portfolio is 100 Crores.
Financial Times reports the performance of global indices - S&P for Americas, FTST Eurofirst 300 for Europe and Nikkei 225 for Asia-Pacific region, plus, the Nikkei 225 is comprised of 225 stocks that are selected from the Japanese common stocks in the first section ranked by trading volume of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (Nikkei indexes, 2014). Therefore, the Nikkei 255 is considered to be a good proxy of the Japanese market capitalization ( Ugbede, Lizam, Kaseri & Idachaba, 2013).
The weak-form efficiency cannot explain January effect. In semi-strong-form efficient market, to test this hypothesis, researchers look at the adjustment of share prices to public announcements such as earnings and dividend announcements, splits, takeovers and repurchases. As time goes, later tests tend to be not supportive to EMH. For instance, semi-strong-form efficiency cannot explain the pricing/earning effect. In strong-form efficiency, the highest level of market efficiency, Fama (1991) pointed out the immeasurability of market efficiency and suggested that it must be tested jointly with an equilibrium model of expected. However, perfect efficiency is an unrealistic benchmark that is unlikely to hold in practice.
Using monthly data from 17 countries - seven developed economies and 10 emerging economies over the period of 1976 to 1993, Errunza et al. (1999) comprehensively analyze the gains from investing in three types of US traded
As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)
For the study purpose the daily changes in performance of Mutual funds were analyzed in relation to other Mutual fund company and also to the daily volatility in the National Stock Exchange of India benchmark Index (NIFTY) and national stock exchange and Bombay national exchange
Stock markets are a central component to the functioning of a capitalist economy. All major economies have national stock markets and many economies have smaller markets as well in order to facilitate trade in small cap stocks, or other specialized securities such as derivatives. Sometimes the performance of a stock market is used in the media as a measure of economic performance, as the market is deemed to be comprised of rational economic actors whose actions are guided by high levels of knowledge. It is important for everybody to understand how stock markets work, and what the benefits and limitations are of using stock markets as a gauge of economic performance.
Investing in emerging markets offer tempting advantages to investors. The volatile economies of countries considered to be in this category have a potential for extraordinary returns. A caveat to investors considering opportunities in emerging markets are the presence of unstable governments, the chance of nationalization, poor property rights protection, and large swings in prices. Emerging markets are far from a sure thing. But, despite high individual risk, emerging markets can reduce portfolio risk. The volatile economies of these countries have such low correlations compared to the domestic market that they actually provide the greatest degree of diversification.
The important aspect of contemporary financial analysis is the relationship between stock price movements and variations in macroeconomic aggregates. The paper examines the role of macroeconomic variables on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) stock returns movement in Bangladesh. In this paper, the analysis is conducted by using monthly data for the period span from January 2009 to December 2012. All data are collected from Dhaka Stock Exchange, Internet. Five macroeconomic variables have been selected to assess the influence on stock return of Dhaka Stock Exchange. These are: effect of DSI with changes in inflation rate, effect of DSI with changes in foreign reserve, effect of DSI with changes in exchange rate, effect of DSI with