The Health Of The Current U.s. Economy

Using quantitative easing has helped the recovery of the USA and other developing countries. The Fed’s then limited their ability to pursue more measures, but congress ignored those appeals to help support the economy. The Fed’s decided to use smaller steps to help investor expectations and to prevent a possible financial crisis in Europe. In 2011 it was announced that the FED’s would hold short-term interest rates close to zero percent through 2013; to help support the economy. Soon after it was announced that using the “twist” operation would push long-term interest rates down, by purchasing $400 billion in long-term treasury securities with profits from the sale of the short-term government debt. Inaugurating a policy to help shape market expectations, which will raise interest rates at the end of 2014.

During the Federal Reserve meeting in April 2016, the range was left unchanged for federal funds at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). Labor markets experience growth confirmed by policy makers, yet economic activity was monitored as being slow (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The risks associated with the financial developments of the country have ceased (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The average percentage of interest rate in the U.S. averaged at 5.8. March of 1980 a record high was recorded at 20% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The lowest interest rates were recorded in the month of December 2008 at 0.25% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016).

Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

During the Federal Reserve meeting in April 2016, the range was left unchanged for federal funds at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). Labor markets experience growth confirmed by policy makers, yet economic activity was monitored as being slow (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The risks associated with the financial developments of the country have ceased (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The average percentage of interest rate in the U.S. averaged at 5.8. March of 1980 a record high was recorded at 20% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The lowest interest rates were recorded in the month of December 2008 at 0.25% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016).

The discussion of whether the Federal Reserve should raise the federal funds rate is a highly contentious one. Members of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) and academic economists disagree about what constitutes appropriate future macroeconomic policy for the Unites States. In the past, the Fed had been able to raise rates when the unemployment rate was under 5% and inflation was at a target of 2%. Enigmatically, since the Great Recession and despite a strengthening economy, year-over-year total inflation since 2008 has averaged only 1.4%—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (“PCE”). Today, PCE inflation is at 1-1.5% and has continuously undershot the Fed’s inflation target of 2% three years in a row. (Evan 2015) In the six years since the bottom of the Great Recession the U.S. economy has made great strides in lowering the published unemployment rate from about 10% back down to about 5.5%. In light of this data, certain individuals believe that the Federal Reserve should move to increase the federal funds rate in 2015 because unemployment is near 5% and inflation should bounce back on its own (Derby 2015). However, this recommendation is misguided.

There is a breakeven point, at which interest rates slow growth to the point of economic downturn. It is estimated that this breakeven point is around 2.75% (Reuters). If interest rates rose above this level, investment and borrowing would slow dramatically causing stagnation in the economy. However, rates must be raised enough to counter inflation and also enough to provide a mechanism for getting out of a recession. If rates are already low, then they cannot be lowered to help bring our economy out of a future recession. In essence, the rates must be raised high enough so that the fed can then lower them during a recession, but not so high that our economy comes to a

According to Staff review of the Economic Situation for January 28-29, the economic growth rate picked up in the second half of 2013. There was a gradual increase in the total payroll employment and a decline in unemployment rate. Consumer price inflation was still performing poorly than expected, while longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.

To begin, The Federal Reserve System opted to raise interest rates that were placed near zero years ago in order to aid the economy’s growth and prevent inflation from exceeding the target number. Several factors including: the five percent drop in the unemployment rate, and the increase in wages, and the outlook on future inflation contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision take this action. However, the increase in interest rates in December has generated mixed results, and it appeared the Federal Reserve would announce the interest rates were going to increase again. Instead, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that there were better days ahead for the economy, and a slow and careful approach to future increases in the interest rate would serve the economy best, ensuring the growth is maintained. Although the interest rates remained the same early in 2016, they are expected to increase during the June meeting of the Federal Reserve. but cited the economy needed low interest rates in order for the economy to maintain growth. I find it interesting that Yellen continues to worry about inflation growing in the coming years, although the interest rate increase should keep inflation in check through its effect of the economic markets. Yellen sites that she would like the inflation to become and stay at 2 percent each year. However, the current inflation rate is .9 percent, so the the economy is a long way from achieving its target inflation rate

The early to mid-eighties presented a challenge to the fed. A combination of falling oil prices and the Federal Reserve 's control of the money supply, helped to slow down an inflation that had been largely out of control in the previous decade. By the mid-eighties, the economy had bounced back and the United States was entering into one of the longest periods of consistent and sustainable economic growth since the second world war. Along with this growth, the annual inflation rate did not exceed 5%.

To stabilize the economy bonds are used which release money into the market. The responsibility of the Central Bank is to maintain the health of the banking system and regulating the purchase and sale of bonds. The interest rates are controlled to balance the markets. According to the Monetary Policy Report to Congress, “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained a target range of 0 to ¼ percent for the federal funds rate throughout the second half of 2009 and early 2010” while representing forecasted economic decisions to rationalize low levels for longer times on the federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, 2010). Purchases were still being made by the Fed’s to result in improvements to the economy through focusing on mortgages, the real estate market, and the credit market. Predictions by the Federal Open Market Committee depicted low levels on the federal funds rates in early 2010 which would continue for some time while over time the economy would see growth, a rise in inflation, and a decline in unemployment. Feds were in agreement though they expected the recovery process to be slower. Purchases by the Federal reserve were slowed, “$300 billion of Treasury securities were completed by October” and “the purchases of $1.25 trillion of MBS and about $175 billion of agency debt” were suppose to be finished the first quarter of 2010 (Federal Reserve, 2010).

The Fed, seeing a great potential in economic growth, continued lowering interest rates to as little as 1% in June 2003. Subprime mortgages became a hit

The Federal Reserve went into action in response to the 2008 recession by rapidly reducing interest rates with the hopes of encouraging economic growth. The federal funds target rate was decreased to between zero and .25 percent. The results of the rate changes caused what is called “zero bound”, this reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy with the near non-existence of interest rates.

The current rate of GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is 2.7% (for Q3), and it was 1.3% in Q2 of this year. This rate reflects relatively slow growth, with challenges remaining in the domestic market and with sluggishness in Europe suppressing exports to that region. The rate of GDP growth is predicted to slow to a decline of 0.5% between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the US re-entering recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office's projections. These projections are based on the provisions of the Budget Control Act being enacted, though any observers are doubtful that this will occur.

The unemployment rate in the United States has improved dramatically over the last two years, from a high of 8.3% in July 2012, to a low of 6.6% in January 2014. In October of 2012, the civilian labor force increased from 578,000 to 155.6 million, labor force participation increased up to 63.8%, and total employment overall rose by 410,000! Since then, the unemployment rate has been falling at a stable rate due to a political push from Washington DC and new employment initiatives. The inflation rate over the last 2 years has been relatively stably, with a few major increases and decreases in 2012 and 2013. It reached a high of 2.3% in June of 2012, and reached a low of 1.0% at the end of 2013. The federal interest rate has remained at a constant .25% over the past few years.

After a dismal job growth in May and the Brexit shock in June, a few analysts speculated whether the Fed’s next move would be a rate cut instead of a hike. However, since then, the global economy has stabilised and the US economic indicators point