LITERATURE REVIEW A study from Ray M. Valadez, “The housing bubble and the GDP: a correlation perspective” in Journal of Case Research in Business and Economics has been done to focus on the relationship between the Real Gross Domestic Product and the situation of Housing Bubble. In this research, the author has concentrated on the time from the beginning of losing trust in government from the financial institution. He emphasizes how much the housing bubble relates to the recession in the economy. The author takes the sample on changes in GDP and changes in the housing price index from 2005 to 2006 in order to illustrate the statistical connection between them. The dependent variable were used is quarterly changes of adjusted GDP, the database of the research were base on a report on NCSS software. According these results, the changes in both HPI and GDP have likely similar common from in the period of 2005 and 2006, the data showed that there were significant changes in the next two years. The result also showed that housing price and GDP has been long observed and their relationship has more innovations at the end of 2009. Another Research has done by a group of composers including Zhuo Chen, Seong-Hoon Cho, Neelam Poudyal and Roland K. Roberts. The name of research was “Forecasting Housing Prices under Different Submarket Assumptions.” The paper focus on the submarket and use the data of home sale. The database was taken from the Knoxville city combined with
Florida is a bellwether state for the U.S. in that trends that occur in Florida tend to be experienced by the United States as a whole. Florida has pushed through some major events such as the Florida Housing Boom in the early 2000’s, the recession in the mid 2000’s, and the long but steady recovery phase towards the end of the 2000’s and modern times.This trend in housing occured throughout the United States and was a key feature of the Great Recession. It is possible to better understand housing trends and economic effects by focusing on a particular example of housing in Florida. In addition to the direct relationship between prices and demand for condominiums in Florida, there is also a direct correlation of how events
With the consistent increase of property prices and more personal debt than ever before, we assume that there’s a housing bubble in Australia. The statistics show that from 2008 till now, property prices have been going up as a result of increased mortgage debt. When it slows down, that could cause a property crash. We are sure that there’s a housing bubble, but we cannot confirm when it will finally burst although a few area in Australia has already met a decrease of house prices. There are 3 indicators of the housing bubble in Australia.
Prior to the crisis, investments in the residential space saw a significant shift around 2002. Prior to that, residential investments over almost a 30-year period was estimated between 4 and 5 percent of the nominal gross domestic product. In only a short period of time from 2002 to 2005, housing prices exploded, housing prices skyrocketed, with the peak prices showing an increase of over 12% per year. (Dokko et al. , 2009)
The houses price rose 130 percent between late 1990’s and early 2006. The lending of new mortgages became very low, during this period. Because of the decreasing of credit, more people invested in house market. Then, the prices of houses kept the rapid growth. Accordingly, the mental factor was an important factor leading the housing boom and bust.
Dokko, Doyle, Kiley et all shows graphs of how the housing market climbed from 1974- 2001 with small periods of dips in the housing market. Housing prices began and all-time record climb points above the nominal house price. The inflation of house prices, increasing interest rates, and ease of access to mortgages set America on a course for disaster in the housing market.
There was decline during the recession of the early 1990s, with the price of homes. The average price of homes in the United States remained somewhat stable until June 1997, then began to decline. The Case-Shiller Home Price index almost tripled from 79.91 in June 1997 to 226.38 in March 2006. The National Association of Realtors home affordability index, which relates the medium price of single family homes to the medium family income, fell below the line in the beginning of the first quarter of 2004, and reversed its in the second quarter of 2006.
It seems hard to believe that over ten years have elapsed since the peak of the US housing market in the previous economic expansion. Residential construction as a percentage of real GDP reached a zenith of 6.2% in 2005 Q3. The ensuing contraction saw this share decline -60% to trough at 2.5% of GDP in 2010 Q3. The current economic expansion began in 2009 Q3, but the sheer magnitude of the collapse made it virtually impossible for any subsequent housing recovery to impart the same outsized contributions to headline GDP growth compared to the previous cycle. This has consequently played a significant role in restricting the ability of the economy to shift into a higher gear of growth during the current
The housing crisis of 2008 can trace its origins back to the stock market trends of the mid- to late 90 's. During a period of extended growth in the stock market, increased individual wealth among investors led to generalized increases in spending, including in the housing market. With more disposable income in the pockets of consumers, the demand for housing increased in the late 90 's. Due to the fact that homes are large projects and their construction takes a large amount of time, the supply of homes in the market is inelastic on the short term. Because of the fixed supply of homes, as per the law of supply, which
The domestic housing market seems to be very inelastic due to the frequent change in prices. Households see homes as important which will result in the extended demand for housing. Suppliers such as builders and property developers have experimented by increasing prices and found that even though prices have risen in a reasonable
Macroeconomics is an excellent tool for the analysis of the housing industry as something like a capital good, as a home is considered to be, cannot easily be studied in a short-term platform. Real estate is a good that costs several times more than an average persons annual income, in the United States that number is typically 7 times as much, and in the United Kingdom that number is 14 times as much. Several factors of both supply and demand directly impact the housing market on a macroeconomic scale. (Business Economics, 1)
The following essay will thoroughly examine the severe economic downturn of 2008, formerly known as the housing bubble collapse. We will mainly focus our discussion on the effects the financial crisis had on Canada and the U.S and examine why both countries were affected differently. Although the collapse of the housing bubble is the most identifiable cause, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint one specific defining moment or event triggering the global financial collapse. There are many factors involved, due to the complex nature of the financial systems across the world, and this paper will delve in the key contributing variables that led to this financial crises.
From the view of demand, after 2000, the decreasing interest rate and the availability of
China is one of the major economical players in today’s international market. China’s economy is the “seconds largest in the world after the United States” (Joseph, 63). This is a striking achievement due to fact that China is a “developing country”. China has achieved a great amount of success through the collaboration of political and economical regimes. The economical growth in China led to “one of the biggest improvements in human welfare anywhere at anytime” (Kristof, 15). Currently, China is experiencing a real-estate bubble. This eventually will hit a climax, disrupting the real-estate market within China. This real estate bubble that China is undergoing is considered one of the "biggest housing
Declining price attract people with the easy loan facilities of their banks. And banks are ready with very high risk loans. This excess supply of home inventory placed significant downward pressure on prices. As prices declined, more homeowners were at risk of default and foreclosure. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index, by November 2007, average U.S. housing prices had fallen approximately 8% from their Q2 2006 peak and by May 2008 they had fallen 18.4%. The price decline in December 2007 versus the year-ago period was 10.4% and for May 2008 it was 15.8%. Housing prices are expected to continue declining until this inventory of surplus homes (excess supply) is reduced to more typical levels.
When researching past economic recoveries, the housing market is the one to drive the economy out of recession. That being said, this economic recession hasn’t had much of an impact until recently. America’s housing boom had a tremendous influence on the economy for its low prices and flow of new home construction.