The Influence Of Polls

While the majority claim that taking a step to deport people is cruel and inconsistent with our legal value that undocumented immigrant strengthen our economy and country. Claim-makers use the polls because they offer feedback at the early stages in the process and to determine whether their claim is effective or not. Policymakers often base their decision on what the polls say. Public opinion overall there is little support to deport all those undocumented immigrants in the U.S. nonetheless survey in the past have found great support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and change the constitution. This form of public- opinion is often viewed as inaccurate because polls are formalized situation in which people know they are being solicited for analysis and this can affect what they are willing to

Public opinion polls come in a wide-set of different subjects and are good examples of inductive arguments that are seen and used in our day to day lives to measure the public’s views regarding a particular topic or topics done so by taking a non-biased survey/questions. This is an excellent example of inductive arguments, because the person or party/entity conducting these surveys, is looking to validate their argument and assumptions, or to provide a guarantee of truth in the concluding result. However, it is not simply easy to rely on “experts” and believe that the data from these polls they collect, are completely accurate and are not skewed from their own biases. Since a survey is an inductive generalization, a sample is taken from the target population from which a conclusion is drawn regarding the entire population.Which makes these inductive arguments fall into two categories: either weak or strong.

Shining the OutRiderr Spotlight on a Washington Post article from May 19th By John Woodrow Cox, Scott Clement and Theresa Vargas.

The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess

The United States has a troubled history of voter suppression. Prior to the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, many states used policies such as poll taxes and literacy tests to prevent African Americans from voting. Even after the voting barriers of the Jim Crow era were removed more than 50 years ago, some lawmakers continue to pursue policies that would undermine our nation’s progress.

This then leads into what is the sample size is too small and is not a great representation of the overall population. If the sample size is too small, it could lead to selection bias which is when the sample does a terrible job representing the actual ideologies of the population in that area. Push polling, which is asking questions in a way that gives the pollster the answer that is being sought out, is often another technique used to potentially skew the outcome. All of these are factors that could potentially be important when it comes to the outcome of the polls. Make sure to keep in mind that whenever a poll is taken there is always a way that someone/something can skew it to their

Voter suppression is not a “new” topic in regards to voting and voter turnout. Last year, Governor Robert Bentley of Alabama closed 31 driver license offices in rural areas of the state due to a budget shortfall. However, this raised concern and conflict to the fact that this made it difficult for a majority of Alabama citizens to vote.

If I was presented with all the facts, and knew all the backgrounds of each individual polled, gleaned each question, understood the diction, and tone of the pollster, I still would not be satisfied with the results. A lot of people accept what they read as factual, I am not one of those, I question and satisfy myself with my gleaned truths.

In the New York Times article “What’s the Matter With Polling?” public policy and political science professor Cliff Zukin argues that polls and pollsters have grown to be unreliable due to the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Since a higher percentage of people have acquired and use cellphones more than landlines in the past decade and the 1991 Telephone Consumer Protection Act has been interpreted to prohibit the calling of cellphones through automatic dialers, survey companies have to devote more money, time, and resources to contacting potential participants. The rapidly declining response rate has also increased the risk of surveys failing to reflect public opinion, and therefore increase the number of failed predictions. Although conducting polls on the Internet is cheaper, “coverage error” is prominent, and Internet use correlates inversely with age and voting habits, making it even more difficult to predict the outcome of elections. Beyond this, as Zukin illustrates, it is nearly impossible to figure out how to draw a representative sample of Internet users.

The reason why is because there are certain factors and variables that aren’t taken into account that should be in order to create the most accurate public opinion poll possible. One website that outlines which criteria should be met in the form of answering 5 important questions is the website crf-usa.org. This website recommends asking yourself the following five questions when analyzing the results of any public opinion poll, “1. Who Was Interviewed? Generally speaking, the accuracy of a poll depends upon the degree to which the characteristics of the people being interviewed are really similar to those of the group they are supposed to represent. For example, the polling of sixteen-year-olds to predict the outcome of an election would be very questionable since they cannot vote. Also, as a general rule, the greater the number of people interviewed, the more likely the prediction will be accurate. Everything else

In the article The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in Public Opinion Polls there are many types of polls and poll reports that at a quick glance might seem to be giving accurate information, but when looked at critically the discrepancies begin to show. Most average people who see political polls or any other polls usually don’t question the results let alone go and do research to see if those results are true or if they are bias. This tends to leave people misinformed and can cause them to be easily convinced by people like politicians. Fortunately, we live in the modern age where information is readily available to us, and with a click of a button we can search for the true results. But where do we start and how do we know if the results of a

The election season is a season full of polls, predictions, and forecasts. During this hectic period all media outlets compete to update polls and inform the American public on which candidate is leading. Polling is an aspect greatly used in the American media. We rely on polls to make predictions for everything that involves competition. Sports, politics, economics and many more fields use polls to make predictions about the future. As a society we trust polls and believe them as if they are certain and will predict the future without any error. In the 2016 Presidential elections, polls have failed immensely. Donald Trump came into Election Day with a minimal 15% chance of winning. Despite his minimal chances the next president of the free

Polling was created by a man named George Gallup. “ In 1935 he founded the American Institute for Public Opinion. His Gallup Organization continues to track America's opinions today.” (Ashley Dugger) Polls might seem like a simple process but that's not the case. There’s a lot of actually a lot of math involved and some other factors. when i was reading the articles I didn’t understand the process completely.

Another case related to the frame in a decision-making process “The Effect of Media on Voters: Field Experiment at the Moscow Mayoral Elections” was conducted by Russian researchers Maxim Mironov and Alexandra Petrachkova. Their study analyzed how negative campaign affects the voting preferences at the 2013 Moscow mayoral election. In order to investigate this, they created an anti-government newspaper which criticized the policies of incumbent mayor, Sergei Sobyanin. The newspaper articles discussed alleged corruption of the city government and distributed near the entrances of randomly selected 20 metro stations during 4 weeks prior the election date. Authors found that these newspapers had a significant impact on voting behavior and detected

To some people, first impressions are everything. According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman, “If people are failing, they look inept. If people are succeeding, they look strong and good and competent. That's the 'halo effect.' Your first impression of a thing sets up your subsequent beliefs. If the company looks inept to you, you may assume everything else they do is inept.” Many believe that the first minutes or even seconds of interaction are crucial to perception character and to establishing oneself as a leader. In the presidential debates, candidates are given anywhere between thirty seconds and or a few minutes in the beginning to establish their image and set the tone for the debate. This short amount of time is enough to ascertain the defining characteristics of the candidate, the implications of these qualities, and the overall chance of success, likelihood of election, for the candidate.