The Influence Of Polls

It seems to me that we are just fascinated with polls. That almost everything is based on a poll, and they often base their opinions and views of the world on their results. Politicians do the same, but to a much greater extent. Most leaders will try to base their decisions largely on their poll numbers. I think that it is not right for them to base everything off poll. Polls are a way to make the voice of the individual citizen heard. Unfortunately, it is not simple. That reason is be causes that polls are not that accurate or reliable for many reasons. Some of those reasons are that; the samples are too small to represent the population, the result from the polls can be presented in a way that misleads many people, the result of the polls

It all starts October 2016, when the data from the polls shows that three of the presidential candidates are running neck-in-neck, and there are 10% of people undecided. Starting with the public opinion which is a person’s attitude or preference on a particular issue such as a political issue, political event, and political leaders. The values of the people which are their principles that form their political opinion could also be a part in their choosing of a presidential candidate. This leads into the peoples’ party affiliation, if they see themselves leaning towards one party they are more likely to vote for the candidate who is running within those party lines. There are so many explanations as to why this poll could be getting the results that it is.

Public opinion polls come in a wide-set of different subjects and are good examples of inductive arguments that are seen and used in our day to day lives to measure the public’s views regarding a particular topic or topics done so by taking a non-biased survey/questions. This is an excellent example of inductive arguments, because the person or party/entity conducting these surveys, is looking to validate their argument and assumptions, or to provide a guarantee of truth in the concluding result. However, it is not simply easy to rely on “experts” and believe that the data from these polls they collect, are completely accurate and are not skewed from their own biases. Since a survey is an inductive generalization, a sample is taken from the target population from which a conclusion is drawn regarding the entire population.Which makes these inductive arguments fall into two categories: either weak or strong.

Undoubtedly, the last 80 years have brought the biggest change to the election process - polling. Beginning with the Gallup poll in 1936, the industry has become a titanic business, growing unregulated by the United States government. Frequently, polls have come under fire for their inaccuracy, or for their role in blocking the Democratic process (the 2000 and 2004 elections come to mind). Nonetheless, the 1992 election was not notable because of alleged bias, but because of what the polls said about

If I was presented with all the facts, and knew all the backgrounds of each individual polled, gleaned each question, understood the diction, and tone of the pollster, I still would not be satisfied with the results. A lot of people accept what they read as factual, I am not one of those, I question and satisfy myself with my gleaned truths.

Shining the OutRiderr Spotlight on a Washington Post article from May 19th By John Woodrow Cox, Scott Clement and Theresa Vargas.

In her article, “Higher Youth Voter Turnout Could Change Election Outcome: Pollster,” Joan Bryden argues that political leaders do very little to engage youth in upcoming elections. Currently, political leaders are focus mostly on older voters who do vote, rather than younger voters who are looking for more change. By only focusing on those who do vote, politicians fail to see how younger voters are more keen on change occurring in their society. As a result, younger voters do not understand what politicians stand for during the election. Political leaders could do more to encourage youth voters by “adopting a more helpful, can-do manner,” through face-to-face interaction and mobile technology, discussing topics of concern such as affordable housing and education, finally, communicating a clear picture of what their party stands for.

In “Stop the Polling Insanity,” an op-ed article published in The New York Times, Norman J. Ornstein (Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute) and Alan I. Abramowitz (Professor of Political Science at Emory), argues why there are so many different tracking polls. The biggest reason is because this election has controversial candidates and the more shocking polls gain an intense following. This is a great time for the news; however as a voter, one must be careful of the source chosen.

The United States has a troubled history of voter suppression. Prior to the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, many states used policies such as poll taxes and literacy tests to prevent African Americans from voting. Even after the voting barriers of the Jim Crow era were removed more than 50 years ago, some lawmakers continue to pursue policies that would undermine our nation’s progress.

But I do understand that public opinion polls play an important role in politics. They are used throughout the course of election campaigns by candidates and by the media to see which candidates are ahead and who is likely to emerge victorious. The results of these polls, in turn, largely determine where future campaign monies are to be spent and where each candidate's efforts will be concentrated until the close of the campaign. My political opinion is influenced by public opinion because, knowing the role of the candidates and how they act is a huge part when it comes to voting on election day. Seeing how they act through media can change your opinion on how you see the person who’s running for presidency. Also, you can keep up with everything and see who’s winning the race. This also shows the months before elections, news coverage often focuses on the results of pre-election polls, and the accumulating of polling results on websites further increases their availability to the

While the majority claim that taking a step to deport people is cruel and inconsistent with our legal value that undocumented immigrant strengthen our economy and country. Claim-makers use the polls because they offer feedback at the early stages in the process and to determine whether their claim is effective or not. Policymakers often base their decision on what the polls say. Public opinion overall there is little support to deport all those undocumented immigrants in the U.S. nonetheless survey in the past have found great support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and change the constitution. This form of public- opinion is often viewed as inaccurate because polls are formalized situation in which people know they are being solicited for analysis and this can affect what they are willing to

Voter suppression is not a “new” topic in regards to voting and voter turnout. Last year, Governor Robert Bentley of Alabama closed 31 driver license offices in rural areas of the state due to a budget shortfall. However, this raised concern and conflict to the fact that this made it difficult for a majority of Alabama citizens to vote.

It is not a coincidence that the increased availability of news sources has been accompanied by increasing political polarization. Over time, polarization appears to have spread to the level of mass public opinion (Abramowitz & Saunders, 2006; Jacobson, 2006; Abrams, & Pope, 2005). For instance, in U.S. politics, Democrats’ and Republicans’ negative evaluations of a president of the other party have steadily intensified (Abramowitz & Saunders, 2006; Jacobson, 2006). The presidential approval data reveal a widening chasm between Republicans and Democrats; the percentage of partisans who respond at the extremes (‘‘strong approval’’ or ‘‘strong disapproval’’) has increased significantly over time. In fact, polarized assessments of U.S. presidential performance are higher today than at any other time in recent history, including the months preceding the resignation of President Nixon.

According to the article, small differences in methods between popular polls can result in large differences when voter commitment is still uncertain (Tackett, 2012). During this election, polls were a great source of information for voters to use in their decision making process. Bloomberg’s poll surveyed 1,002 adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the full sample. This means that if the polls were conducted 100 times, the data would be within 3 points above or below the reported percentage in 95 of 100 surveys (Tackett, 2012).

Sadly, majority of Americans do not follow politics and who is running for presidency. Americans have become too comfortable with thinking that the world will become great on its own and that they are not needed in helping to extend life on Earth. Other democracies have higher turnouts because their voting days are generally held on weekends and the area expresses the concerns for voting. The problem is cultural and institutional. Culturally because Americans are greatly influenced by their peers and if their peers show a small interest in voting so, will they. An example is a parent that does not vote as they hold no interest; therefore, their child once reaching 18 will not want to do the same. Intuitionally because rules and laws are better