Initial Operational Approach
The Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz (SOH)
The current environment
The Arabian Gulf region is currently in a fragile status. Iran is emerging as a regional hegemony trying to expand its sphere of influence over the GCC states and even beyond to the entire Middle East, increasing the tension with its neighbors. Its growing military capabilities along with its nuclear program and ballistic missile technology have risen the instability in the region. On the other side, the GCC lead by Saudi Arabia, along with Israel, have their own fears, from the sectarian tensions that can destroy the GCC stability, especially in KSA and Bahrain, to the threat to the maritime lines of trades especially the Strait of Hormuz
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The other conflicts in the area, Afghanistan and Somalia, are not as important but remain a source of instability to the region.
The USCENTCOM second element is the myriad tensions in the region. The first is the control of the maritime commercial line of communication in the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the only exit of nearly quarter of the oil exports from the GCC and Iran to the outside world, which make it vital to the oil tankers sailing to and from the Arabian Gulf. The second is the sectarian tension between the Sunni and Shia population in the region, especially in the eastern part of KSA and Bahrain, where the majority in these regions are Shia. The proximity of these two regions is what make them a point of concern along with its proximity to Iran. The third tension is between Saudi Arabia and Iran embodied by the regional power competition and the conflict over the sphere of influence in the region. This tension is fueled by the robust expansion of the IRGC Quds Force and the sponsorship of proxy groups like Houthis in Yemen, along with the Iranian nuclear program and the buildup of its military capabilities, and its support for Shia in the region. The fourth is the tension between Iran and Qatar and UAE on the energy resources in the Arabian Gulf and the islands of Abu Musa, Tumb, and Qeshm. Also important to mention the tension between the KSA, UAE, Bahrain in one side and Qatar from the other side
Saudi Arabia and Iran are two countries that sit on opposite sides of the Sunni/Shiite divide, which can be argued as being the most prominent issue the Middle East faces today. Saudi Arabia is predominantly known to be a Sunni state, while Iran is largely inhabited by Shia Muslims. Both countries aspire to be the hegemonic powers of the region. Ethnically, Iran is known to be a Persian land, unlike Saudi Arabia that is known to be in the heart of the Arab world. These two countries are separated by the Arabian Gulf and throughout the twentieth century and up until today, the relationship between the two countries has been notoriously contentious. Within the past few years especially relationships between the two states have been very fragile with Saudi Arabia ending diplomatic ties early in 2016. The two states are strained over many issues of which are, interpretations of Islam, oil export policy and hegemonic regional leadership.
The two most important resources in this region are oil and water. The huge oil “deposits there and in the neighboring countries around the Persian Gulf (the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain) established these countries as some of the richest in the world” (Document F). Nevertheless, the countries who do not have as much access to oil are weak economically. Oil is the biggest export in the Middle East, and in a way, the amount of oil a country has determines how wealthy that country will be. Another component of oil is that countries and ethnic groups are disputing for the control of prices of this economic resource. It has gone to the far extent of foreign countries attempting to control the oil price and also the use of weapons for this (Document E). In addition, it is impossible for each country to have equal access to water due to the unbalanced distribution of these essential resources. As a result of this, these countries are fighting for as much control of water sources they can get. Radically, there are many countries in the Middle East that are striving to obtain as many natural resources to strengthen their economy and lifestyle, and it seems most obvious that the scarcity of these resources is a significant problem in the region
Iran was a major hotspot during the Cold War, but it was the events that occurred during the World Wars that set the stage.
The Gulf houses half of the world’s oil reserves and a third of the natural gas. The Gulf States still continue to supply the international markets with a significant amount of the hydrocarbons. The stability of the region is crucial for the stability in the global oil markets. The Gulf also hosts one of the most strategically and important choke points in global trade, The Straits of Hormuz, which moves about 35% of the global seaborne oil, natural gas and other trade goods.
Iran’s nuclear programme has in recent years worsened US-Iran relations. The United States accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons (Bahgat , 2009). Other reasons for mistrust include USA’s support for Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980’s. Specifically, Iran continues to resent the US supplying Iraq with the chemical weapons it used during the war. Adding fuel to the fire, in 1988, US guided missile Cruiser the USS Vincennes on station in the Persian Gulf mistakenly shot down Iranian Airlines flight 655 killing 290. (Milinski, n.d.)
The Caspian Sea is among five states and remains a source of tension. More than 15 rounds of negotiations have failed to reach an agreement by all parties. Azerbaijan, Ahurastan, and Iran claim the Araz-Alov-Sharg oil field in the Caspian Sea.
The Middle East is one of the birthplaces of human kind’s civilization. Since the Ancient Egypt, Sumer, the Arab Empire, Turkey Empire, or even to present day, the Middle East has always been a valuable strategic point for not only because of its geographic location but also it full of petroleum and nature gas. According the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) that 66% of the global oil reserves are in the Middle East and only 6% in North America, this makes a lot of powerful countries want to share a pieces of the Middle East, Stephen mentions “Much of the world 's oil wealth exists along the Persian Gulf, with particularly large reserves in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
Persian Gulf Development Literature Oil Curse Literature Arab and Islamic Factors Regional Ovemiew and Historical Background Dubai's Development History
In 2004 in the midst of the Iranian nuclear aspirations and the slow slide of Iraq into a civil war, there was talk publicly of a “Shia crescent” in the Middle East. The president in the country of Jordan who was a Sunni that proclaimed direct relation to the prophet Muhammad was the person that sounded the alarm about the “Shia crescent”, which started at the Mediterranean Sea and ended at the Persian Gulf. The crescent continued from the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean. Abdullah and Mubarak along with the Saudi officials suggested the threat of a divided Middle East along the sectarian lines. It would put the forever-downtrodden Shia against their Sunni rulers. They thought that the first battleground might be Iraq followed by the oil laden Persian Gulf region. If this were to occur then the Shiite leader of Iran could secure all of the oil and gas fields in
In his paper about Iran’s nuclear program, Barry R. Posen emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program may result on regional and global instability. On regional level, neighboring countries of Iran will feel threatened with Iran’s nuclear power. This situation may lead them to follow Iran’s step in developing nuclear weapons even though they do not have the capability to ensure the security of their nuclear sites. Clearly, nuclear weapons proliferation will put the Middle East in escalating dangerous situation. On global level, the U.S. and its allies are concerned that the situation in the Middle East may harm their national interests. The Middle East is still a prominent producer of oil which is the main energy resource for industrial
The countries present their ideologies to the outside world as holy nations. Recently there has been significant evidence on major shifts with increasing polarization and creation of new alliances. These strategic actions produce both risks and opportunities; however, in the Middle East, there has been growing sectarianism in the conflicts (El Fadl, 2005). The sectarianism plays a great role in the political conflicts within Saudi Arabia and Iran. While both Saudi Arabia and Iran claim to have theocracy model states based on Islam, Saudi Arabia is considered a Theo-monarchy with strong relations to Wahhabism, a branch of Sunni Islam, while Iran’s political system has democratic components and is based on Shiism (Al-Rasheed, 1996). The differences in religious practices and ethnicity between the two nations have contributed to the dilemma of instability in the Middle
Conflict over energy resources—and the wealth and power they create—has become an increasingly prominent feature for geopolitics particularly in the Middle East . The discovery of oil in the late nineteenth century added a dimension to the region as major outside states powers employed military force to protect their newly acquired interests in the Middle East. The U.S.’s efforts to secure the flow of oil have led to ever increasing involvement in the Middle East region’s political affairs and ongoing power struggles. By the end of the twentieth century, safeguarding the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf had become one of the most important functions of the U.S. military establishment. The close relationship between the United States and the Saudi royal family was formed in the final months of World War II, when U.S. leaders sought to ensure preferential access to Saudi petroleum. The U.S. link with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region has demonstrated to be greatly beneficial to both parties, yet it has also led to ever deepening U.S. involvement in regional politics.
Throughout history the Middle East has been home to some of the most powerful and influential empires in the world. As with all great empires they did not arise without difficulty. Though the Middle East has had periods of great prosperity, it has also had periods of poverty and stagnation. Within the last one hundred years the Middle East has seen many changes relating to borders, religions, and international politics. Much of the changes that have happened originated from diverse ways of thinking especially when it comes to religion and culture. Conflicts that occur in the Middle East such as Israel, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan have monumental effects on the global economy predominately due to the massive oil industry in the region and competition between outside nations trying to expand influence.
The Middle East has long been home to very deep-rooted conflict. For too long, the citizens of the Middle East have lived in the central of death and fear. The animosity between few, takes the hope of hundreds. The Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflict is most notably the largest issue preventing peace in the Middle East, but it is by no means the only issue. The issue of bankrolling and foreign aid are also issues preventing peace; because the U.S provides so much funding and foreign aid to certain countries, it is in some sense encouraging them to continue acting the way they act now and not change for the better of the region. It is also making the U.S look biased and can potentially cause issues for America in the long run, if they haven’t already. There is also the conflict of the Persian Gulf; the importance of these “new” resources and how it could affect the world economy and also the balancing of powers in the Persian Gulf; The U.S and the Middle Eastern nations will need to work to together to bring about security and stability into the Persian Gulf and hopefully it can overflow to the Middle East as well.
There is no dispute that the Middle East, for the past century, has been a region plagued with tension and conflict. Differences in religion and ethnicity have been the source for hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the progression of those issues have shown very little evidence of slowing down as the bloodshed continues. Many parties on the global scale fear that the combination of evolving technology and weaponry, and desire to harness nuclear power, is fueling the hatred that some of the countries in the area have for one another and will eventually lead to an extremely disastrous nuclear war. As a result, international global organizations, such as the United Nations, have been working to prevent such an outcome. They are