THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
CENTER FOR NORTHEAST ASIAN POLICY STUDIES
POLICY SUGGESTIONS FOR THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM’S GAS INDUSTRY
Hai Tien Le
CNAPS Visiting Fellow, Vietnam, Spring 2010
Director, Research Centre for Petroleum Economics and Management
Vietnam Petroleum Institute
September 2012
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington D.C. 20036-2188
Tel: (202)797-6000 Fax: (202)797-2485 http://www.brookings.edu Abbreviations
BCM
BTU
Government
LNG
LPG
MOIT
Mtoe
MW
MBBTU
MMBTU
MMCM
PVN
PVEP
PVGas
SCM
USD / US$
TCM
VND
Billion cubic meters
British thermal unit
Government of Vietnam
Liquefied natural gas
Liquefied petroleum gas
Ministry of Industry and
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These principles are borrowed from “An Introduction to the Gas Sector,” The World Bank, Vietnam Gas
Sector Mission, January 7-8, 2009, page 84.
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Policy Suggestions for Vietnam’s Gas Industry
Hai Tien Le
CNAPS Visiting Fellow Working Paper
3
Vietnam’s gas policy should address and looks at a number of possible solutions. Finally, the paper concludes with some overall comments regarding gas policy in Vietnam.
II. Overview of Vietnam’s gas industry
Natural gas is a critical source of energy for Vietnam, and it plays an important role in the nation’s energy economy. BMI reports that natural gas is the second biggest primary energy provider, accounting for 18 percent of the nation’s energy, followed by coal and hydroelectric power. It is expected that the use of gas will increase to account for 31 percent of Vietnam’s primary energy demand, and oil demand will be down to 38 percent. 3
Vietnam’s natural gas industry has developed a long way from its initial small onshore field located in Thai Binh province, south of Haiphong, in the 1970s. Today there are three major reserve basins located in southern Vietnam – Cuu Long, Nam Con Son, and
Malay-Tho Chu – which supply the power generation and fertilizer projects currently under operation.
The modern natural gas industry was born in 1995, with the production of associated gas from the Bach Ho oil field to the Ba Ria Power Plant, which had an
natural gas it produces, according to Bill Powers “Texas is the third largest producer of natural
offers a very bleak and realistic description of an oil refinery in Bayonne, New Jersey.
In 2011, the United States produced 8.5 million cubic feet of natural gas, a value of nearly $36 billion, from shale gas alone. As a result, the U.S. is now the world’s top manufacturer of natural gas. Imported gases compose merely 8 percent of total natural gas consumption in the United States. Since America does not rely on imported gas, the United States has balanced it trade as the U.S. domestic supply has grown to meet its demand. Business magnate T. Boone Pickens stated, “Natural gas is the best transportation fuel. It is better than gasoline or diesel. It is cleaner, it is cheaper, and it is domestic. Natural gas is 97% domestic fuel.”
Natural gases are the most important source of energy in the modern world of technology and electricity production, which makes the skyrocketing gas production in the U.S. due to hydraulic fracturing incredibly valuable in terms of global trade and economy. The United States has always been reliant on the Middle East and other European and Asian countries for energy, but is very quickly becoming energy independent. "By 2020, the Energy Information Administration predicts that the USA will become a net exporter of natural gas", reaching energy independence from other countries and starting to export gas to provide revenue and pay off debts (Hassett and Mathur). Even
Natural gas has supplied energy to humanity since the 19th century, it offers great jobs, and is more affordable than other energy sources. Without fossil fuels/natural gas it would harder and more expensive to have everyday energy. With fracking being a big part in today’s world, people still wonder if the chemicals used are really dangerous and if there is another way to make them more earth
The Yellow River is not what is used be unfortunately. With the decrease in rainfall in the Yellow River Basin and also increasing water demands for irrigation purposes the river has dried up annually since 1972. The longest it ever ran dry was in 1997 for 226 days (Wu). These annual droughts have brought many challenges to the regions agriculture
W hy does everyone care so much about natural gas? Why is it such an essential part of modern culture? Sure, it's an exciting and up and coming technology, which is fuel for the technological generation that we've grown up in, but we need to take a closer look to see the methods and impacts that could affect generations after us.
Jeff Goodell, a leading staff writer on energy and environmental issues for Rolling Stone magazine once stated, “Nobody disputes that cheap natural gas would be a good thing for the economy. The question is, is this a sustainable new development that can be counted on for decades to come, or simply a 'bubble ' brought on by a land grab and drilling frenzy?” (“Jeff Goodell Quote”, 2013). Goodell states the undeniable truth about natural gas. This is that the federal government regulating the fracking industry will exponentially increase the United States economy by making the United States a global counterpart in the worldwide market for oil. However, Goodell also highlights the negative effects of fracking and natural gas. This is the
3. Liss, William. "Demand Outlook: A Golden Age of Natural Gas." Chemical Engineering Progress 108.8 (2012): 35-40. ProQuest.Web. Available at: <http://search.proquest.com/docview/1034899165?pq-origsite=summon>. Date accessed: 1 Nov. 2014.
North America has never been one to boast of rich oil reserves, but we have an abundant amount of natural gases. Until recently these natural resources have been unobtainable and untapped. But thanks to technological advancements, we are now able to exploit these rich gas reserves. Hydraulic fracturing has revolutionized the production of energy in the United States as well as other places in the world.
Klare argues that discovery of a natural resource, for instance, oil, result in producers seeking and exploiting the most desirable, best quality and those closest to markets. Over time, these “easy” resources become scarce, of poorer quality, harder to extract and extend into areas further away from the market. This subsequent need to extract “tougher” resources has catalyzed an age of discovery that energy experts call the “shale revolution.” Daniel Yergin, an author and energy optimist describes the “natural gas
John D. Rockefeller, was an accountant, constructed a syndication over the oil business in under ten years and moved request to a confused fundamental industry. When he entered the oil business, it was an industry subject to savage jags underway and costs. Each discovery of a new oilfield led to rapid overproduction by wealth seeking adventurers. Yet, constantly markets were soon glutted, costs given way, and makers became bankrupt. Rockefeller's sensibilities were repelled by this issue. He perceived that control, and request, could be accomplished by overwhelming a solitary bottleneck in the creation process. He started to procure refineries.
The IEA expects global demand for natural gas to hit 4.75 trillion cubic meters by 2035. If we keep using natural gas how we do, we will have
Where – In the regions of the Yellow River and other provinces to the south.
The general conditions in the global hydrocarbon business are positive, reflecting a combination of factors. There are more people in this world than ever before, more people have achieved at least a middle class