. Amniocentesis is a medical diagnostic for determining whether or not a pregnant woman is likely to be carrying a fetus with a serious birth defect. Over the past decades, the use of this test has become widespread. Assume that in 95 percent of the instances when the test is applied to a fetus with a serious birth defect it correctly predicts the result. Also assume that 98 percent of the time when the test is applied to a fetus without a serious birth defect, it correctly predicts the result.   Next assume that the probability of a 25 year old pregnant woman carrying a fetus with a serious birth defect is .001 and the corresponding probability for a 40 year old woman is .01.   If when applied to a 25 year old pregnant woman, the test indicates the presence of a serious birth defect, what is the probability that this prediction is correct?

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10. Amniocentesis is a medical diagnostic for determining whether or not a pregnant woman is likely to be carrying a fetus with a serious birth defect. Over the past decades, the use of this test has become widespread. Assume that in 95 percent of the instances when the test is applied to a fetus with a serious birth defect it correctly predicts the result. Also assume that 98 percent of the time when the test is applied to a fetus without a serious birth defect, it correctly predicts the result.

 

Next assume that the probability of a 25 year old pregnant woman carrying a fetus with a serious birth defect is .001 and the corresponding probability for a 40 year old woman is .01.

 

If when applied to a 25 year old pregnant woman, the test indicates the presence of a serious birth defect, what is the probability that this prediction is correct?

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