1. Develop a 5-month moving average for the below given. What will be the forecast month 15? Compute for the MAD, MSE and MAPE. Month Unit Sales 1 120 124 3 130 145 155 110 7. 114 8. 156 121 Page 118 1 2 10 4, 5, 6 9,

1. Develop a 5-month moving average for the below given. What will be the forecast month 15? Compute for the MAD, MSE and MAPE. Month Unit Sales 1 120 124 3 130 145 155 110 7. 114 8. 156 121 Page 118 1 2 10 4, 5, 6 9,

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

6th Edition

ISBN:9781285869681

Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

ChapterC: Cases

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 5.3SD: Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling...

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
ABC Corporation is trying to forecast the effect of an upcoming environmental regulation on the variable costs of one of their key products. The regulation is still being debated in the legislature. There is a 50% chance that the regulation will not be released in time to affect next year’s variable costs. ABC management expects the regulation, when it is released, is equally likely to increase variable costs by either 5% or 10%. Currently, the product’s variable costs are P140 per unit. Based on these expectations, what is the expected variable cost for ABC’s key product next year?
Room registrations in the Toronto Towers Plaza Hotelhave been recorded for the past 9 years. To project futureoccupancy, management would like to determine the math-ematical trend of guest registration. This estimate willhelp the hotel determine whether future expansion will beneeded. Given the following time-series data, develop aregression equation relating registrations to time (e.g., atrend equation). Then forecast year 11 registrations. Roomregistrations are in the thousands:
The Vision Hospital is considering the purchase of a new Advance Scan machine. The decision will rest partly on the anticipate patients in the coming months. The numbers of patents during the past years are as follows: Year Number of patents(Actual) 2016 1600 2017 2200 2018 2600 2019 2800 2020 3100 Compute the forecast for the year 2021 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for the year 2016 of 1500 and α = .3
What is it to say that it can lead to better contact between managers for successful variance analysis?
What business performance implications (financial, operational, customer, supplier and shareholder interests) are likely to result from an 84% miss to the production forecast?
The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value? MSE forecast for week 13 Time Series 1.08 14.76 3-week MA 3.04 13.67 exp smoothing 11.04 9.5 Group of answer choices A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76 B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67 C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5 D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08 E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04 F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04
Johnson Plastics Inc. produces cases for CDs. The accounting manager has performed a regression analysis to determine future production costs. The regression estimate is $5,000, with anR-squared of .9, a t-value of 2.5, and a standard error (SE) of $400. Within what interval would shebe reasonably (67%) confident that the actual values will fall?
Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in the next quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its salesforce due to falling demand, and he worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quarter sales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year 1 2 3 4 5 Mileage 3,000 3,950 3,500 3,750 3,800 Part 2 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 37753775 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). Part 3 b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = enter your response here miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)