1. Sensitivity Analysis and Break-Even Point We are evaluating a project that costs $604,000, has an 8-year life, and has no salvage value.Assume that depreciation is straight-line to zero over the life of the project. Sales are projected at 55,000 units per year. Price per unit is$36, variable cost per unit is $17, and fixed costs are $685,000 per year. The tax rate is 21 percent and we require a return of 15 percenton this project.a. Calculate the accounting break-even point.b. Calculate the base-case cash flow and NPV. What is the sensitivity of NPV to changes in the sales figure? Explain what your answertells you about a 500-unit decrease in projected sales.c. What is the sensitivity of OCF to changes in the variable cost figure? Explain what your answer tells you about a $1 decrease inestimated variable costs.2. Scenario Analysis In the previous problem, suppose the projections given for price, quantity, variable costs, and fixed costs are allaccurate to within +10 percent. Calculate the best-case and worst-case NPV figures.

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Financial Management: Theory & Practice

16th Edition

ISBN:9781337909730

Author:Brigham

Publisher:Brigham

Chapter11: Cash Flow Estimation And Risk Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 8P: The Rodriguez Company is considering an average-risk investment in a mineral water spring project...

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Roberts Company is considering an investment in equipment that is capable of producing more efficiently than the current technology. The outlay required is 2,293,200. The equipment is expected to last five years and will have no salvage value. The expected cash flows associated with the project are as follows: Required: 1. Compute the projects payback period. 2. Compute the projects accounting rate of return. 3. Compute the projects net present value, assuming a required rate of return of 10 percent. 4. Compute the projects internal rate of return.
Friedman Company is considering installing a new IT system. The cost of the new system is estimated to be 2,250,000, but it would produce after-tax savings of 450,000 per year in labor costs. The estimated life of the new system is 10 years, with no salvage value expected. Intrigued by the possibility of saving 450,000 per year and having a more reliable information system, the president of Friedman has asked for an analysis of the projects economic viability. All capital projects are required to earn at least the firms cost of capital, which is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the projects internal rate of return. Should the company acquire the new IT system? 2. Suppose that savings are less than claimed. Calculate the minimum annual cash savings that must be realized for the project to earn a rate equal to the firms cost of capital. Comment on the safety margin that exists, if any. 3. Suppose that the life of the IT system is overestimated by two years. Repeat Requirements 1 and 2 under this assumption. Comment on the usefulness of this information.
The Rodriguez Company is considering an average-risk investment in a mineral water spring project that has an initial after-tax cost of 170,000. The project will produce 1,000 cases of mineral water per year indefinitely, starting at Year 1. The Year-1 sales price will be 138 per case, and the Year-1 cost per case will be 105. The firm is taxed at a rate of 25%. Both prices and costs are expected to rise after Year 1 at a rate of 6% per year due to inflation. The firm uses only equity, and it has a cost of capital of 15%. Assume that cash flows consist only of after-tax profits because the spring has an indefinite life and will not be depreciated. a. What is the present value of future cash flows? (Hint: The project is a growing perpetuity, so you must use the constant growth formula to find its NPV.) What is the NPV? b. Suppose that the company had forgotten to include future inflation. What would they have incorrectly calculated as the projects NPV?
Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway’s president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($5 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $59 – $5 – $20 = $34 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? What is the expected value of your strategy? What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy.
Gina Ripley, president of Dearing Company, is considering the purchase of a computer-aided manufacturing system. The annual net cash benefits and savings associated with the system are described as follows: The system will cost 9,000,000 and last 10 years. The companys cost of capital is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the payback period for the system. Assume that the company has a policy of only accepting projects with a payback of five years or less. Would the system be acquired? 2. Calculate the NPV and IRR for the project. Should the system be purchasedeven if it does not meet the payback criterion? 3. The project manager reviewed the projected cash flows and pointed out that two items had been missed. First, the system would have a salvage value, net of any tax effects, of 1,000,000 at the end of 10 years. Second, the increased quality and delivery performance would allow the company to increase its market share by 20 percent. This would produce an additional annual net benefit of 300,000. Recalculate the payback period, NPV, and IRR given this new information. (For the IRR computation, initially ignore salvage value.) Does the decision change? Suppose that the salvage value is only half what is projected. Does this make a difference in the outcome? Does salvage value have any real bearing on the companys decision?
Thaler Company bought 26,000 of raw materials a year ago in anticipation of producing 5,000 units of a deluxe version of its product to be priced at 75 each. Now the price of the deluxe version has dropped to 35 each, and Thaler is now deciding whether to produce 1,500 units of the deluxe version at a cost of 48,000 or to scrap the project. What is the opportunity cost of this decision? a. 175,000 b. 375,000 c. 48,000 d. 26,000

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