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1. What is sensitivity analysis?
2. Perform a sensitvity analysis on the unit sales, salvage value, and WACC for a project. Assume that each of these variables deviates from its base-case, or expected value by plus or minus 10%, 20%, and 30%.The base case value for unit sales is 150,000. Calculate
3. What is the primary weakness of sensitvity analysis? What are its primary advantages?
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- Jeweled Outlook is analyzing a proposed project with expected sales of 9,200 units, ±4 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $26 and the expected fixed costs are $49,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a range of ±5 percent. The depreciation expense is $18,300. The sale price is estimated at $52 a unit, ±3 percent. If the company conducts a sensitivity analysis using a variable cost of $27, what will be the total variable cost estimate?Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimatedNPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.”However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed ascenario analysis and obtained these results: Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.A firm made the following estimates for a project: price per unit = $18, variable cost per unit = $7, fixed cost = $60, and quantity = 25 units. The firm thinks that the actual value of each variable could be as much as 20% higher or lower. Find the operating cash flow in the best-case scenario if depreciation is $120 and the tax rate is 35%.
- A manufacturing firm is considering two mutually exclusive projects. Both projects have an economic service life of one year with no salvage value. The first cost or Project 1 is $1,000, and the first cost or Project 2 is $800. The net year-end revenue for each project is given as follows: Assume that both projects are statistically independent or each other.(a) If you make decisions by maximizing the expected NPW, which projectwould you select?(b) If you also consider the variance of the projects, which project would youselect?Your boss wants you to conduct a sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine whether the following project is a winner. You are entering an established market, and you know the market size will be 1,100,000 units. You are unsure of your exact market share, the price you will be able to charge, and your variable cost per unit, but have determined a range of possible values for each (in the table below). Your initial investment cost is $150 million, and that investment will depreciate in straight-line form over the 20-year life of the project. There are no new NWC requirements, and there will be no salvage value at the end of the 20 years. The tax rate is 35%. The discount rate is 18%. a) Use the following table to conduct a full sensitivity analysis for the project. Make sure to include the NPV for the expected outcome as part of the full sensitivity analysis. Also add the best- and worst-case scenarios to the full sensitivity analysis. Show all of your work (written out, not an…Appalachian Crafts is analyzing a project with expected sales of 18,900 units, ±2 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $23 and the expected fixed costs are $52,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a range of ±1 percent. The depreciation expense is $18,400. The sale price is estimated at $54 a unit, ±2 percent. What is the total dollar difference between the revenue using the optimistic sale price versus the expected sale price?
- Suppose the MARR is 10% with probability 0.25, 12% with probability 0.50, and 15% with probability 0.25; what is the probability that Alternative A is the most economic alternative? Two investment alternatives are being considered. Alternative A requires an initial investment of $15,000 in equipment; annual operating and maintenance costs are anticipated to be normally distributed, with a mean of $5,000 and a standard deviation of $500; the terminal salvage value at the end of the 8-year planning horizon is anticipated to be normally distributed, with a mean of $2,000 and a standard deviation of $800. Alternative B requires endof-year annual expenditures over the planning horizon. The annual expenditure will be normally distributed, with a mean of $8,000 and a standard deviation of $750. Using a MARR of 15%, what is the probability that Alternative A is the most economic alternative?To illustrate how a sensitivity analysis might be performed, we consider once more the SMP investment: a $500,000 initial investment, annual savings of $92,500 for a 10-year period, and a salvage value of $50,000. As before, a 10% MARR applies. Let’s consider how sensitive the annual worth for the investment is to errors in estimating the initial investment, the annual savings, the salvage value, the investment’s duration, and the MARR. Specifically, for an error range of ±50% for each parameter, what is the impact on AW?A firm made the following estimates for a project: price per unit = $18, variable cost per unit = $7, fixed cost = $60, and quantity = 25 units. The firm thinks that the actual value of each variable could be as much as 20% higher or lower. Find the operating cash flow in the best-case scenario if depreciation is $120 and the tax rate is 35%. a.)121 b.)323 c.)404 d.)216 e.)73 f.)182
- Suppose the CFO wants you to do a scenario analysis with different values for the cost savings, the machine's salvage value, and the working capital (WC) requirement. She asks you to use the following probabilities and values in the scenario analysis: Scenario Probability Cost Savings Salvage Value WC Worst case 0.35 $ 88,000 $28,000 $40,000 Base case 0.35 110,000 33,000 35,000 Best case 0.30 132,000 38,000 30,000 Calculate the project's expected NPV, its standard deviation, and its coefficient of variation. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round the monetary values to the nearest dollar and a coefficient of variation to two decimal places. Negative values, if any, should be indicated by a minus sign. The project's expected NPV: $ Standard deviation: $ Coefficient of variation:For each situation below, determine (a) if the variable is discrete or continuous and (b) if the information involves certainty or risk.(1) The first cost of a new front-end loader is $34,000 or $38,000 depending on the size purchased.(2) The raises for engineers and technical staff employees will be 3%, or 5%, with half getting 3% and half getting 5%.(3) Revenue from a new product line is expected to be between $350,000 and $475,000 per year with a larger chance that it is low in the range.(4) The salvage value for an old machine will be $500 (the asking price) or $0 (it will be scrapped), depending upon who is selected by the manager to take it.(5) Profits are expected to be up by anywhere between 25% and 60% this year, with equal probability for all estimates.An investment center manager is considering three possible investments. The company’s required return is 10%. The required asset investment, controllable margins, and the ROIs of each investment are as follows: Project Average Investment Controllable Margin AA $170,000 $44,960 BB 150,000 29,240 CC 230,000 79,640 The investment center is currently generating an ROI of 23% based on $1,210,000 in operating assets and a controllable margin of $289,000.If the manager can select only one project, determine which is the best choice to increase the investment center’s ROI by computing the investment center’s ROI for each of the investment alternatives. (Round answer to 1 decimal place, e.g. 52.5.)