1.How many critical uncertainties per issue are considered in scenario planning? a.Two b.Three c.Four d. Five 2.How many scenarios per issue are considered in scenario planning? a.Two b.Three c.Four d.Five 3.The indicators that suggest which scenario(s) is(are) most likely: a.Driving Forces b.Critical uncertainties c.Early warning signals d.Implications
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1.How many critical uncertainties per issue are considered in scenario planning?
a.Two
b.Three
c.Four
d. Five
2.How many scenarios per issue are considered in scenario planning?
a.Two
b.Three
c.Four
d.Five
3.The indicators that suggest which scenario(s) is(are) most likely:
a.Driving Forces
b.Critical uncertainties
c.Early warning signals
d.Implications
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps
- Select the least accurate statement. A) The expected monetary value (EMV) criterion represents the long-run average of uncertain outcomes, so it should only be used for recurring decisions. b) For each possible decision and each possible outcome, the payoff table lists the associated monetary value. c)The certainty equivalent is the certain dollar amount a risk-averse decision maker would accept in order to avoid a gamble altogether. D) For a risk-averse decision maker, the certainty equivalent is less than the expected monetary value (EMV).Some new product launches fail and this leaves a negative impact on the profitability of the company. Using a particular product as an example, discuss1. Some of the key determinates and conditions that need to be met to launch that product successfully on the market; 2. What may go wrong with the launch of that product and why? 3. What steps should the company launching the product take in order to mitigate product launch failure or to address the situation in the event of a failure of the launch of that productDash and Lily Corporation wanted to raise funds for the poor. The first prizefor a raffle is P500,000 (with aprobability of 0.001) and the second prize is P250,000 (with a probability of0.003). What is a fair price to pay for a single ticket in this raffle? a. Give: what are the given information. b. Requirement: what is requirement. c. Solution: show step by step solution d. Answer: what is the final answer e. Analysis: identify the use of the result in risk management
- 7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U | s2) = 0.60 P(F | s3) = 0.60 P(U | s3) = 0.40 What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable?Chemitronix Ltd. is a microchips manufacturing company. It was found that the business is at the maturity stage, demanding some change. After rigorous research, management came up with the following decision variables Expansion: 45% chance of gaining 1,500,000; 55% chance of losing X New Product: 50% chance of gaining 900,000; 50% chance of losing 545959 What must have been the value of expansion loss if expansion and new product will result to the same expected monetary values?
- A graph that helps decision makers use probability theory by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances is known as a(n) a. Gantt chart b. probability curve c. bar graph d. decision tree In the rational model of decision making, evaluation of alternatives a. is the last step. b. should be as objective as possible. c. can only be done with the help of a decision tree. d. is the only step that requires subjective rationality1) A decision maker using an exponential utility function would prefer a random payoff with an expected value of X to a certain payoff of X. True False 2) In a decision tree, a circular node indicates a point where a random event occurs. True False 3) The optimistic and conservative approaches to decision making will always give the same result. True FalseStates of Nature Alternatives Very Favorable Market Average Market Unfavorable Market Build new plant $300,000 $210,000 −$280,000 Subcontract $160,000 $100,000 −$15,000 Overtime $120,000 $70,000 −$8,000 Do Nothing $0 $0 $0 Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax the appropriate decision will be... (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) (Overtime) (Subcontract) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin the appropriate decision will be... (Subcontract) (Overtime) (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely the appropriate decision will be (Do Nothing) (Subcontract) (Build new plant) (Overtime) The value of the return under this decision is
- #6) A group of medical professionals is considering constructing a private clinic. If a patient demand for the clinic is high, the physicians could realize a net profit of $120,000. If the demand is low, they could lose $55,000. Of course, they do not have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the demand would be high. a) Create a decision tree. b) What should the medical professionals do? What is the payoff? c) The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim that their experience enables them to use Bayes’ theorem to make the following statements of probability: -probability of high demand given a positive survey result = 0.82 -probability of low demand given a positive survey result = 0.18 -probability of high demand given a negative survey result = 0.11…Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What isthe recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace methodPlease help with correct answers! Management Decision Systems (MDS) is a consulting company that specializes in the development of decision support systems. MDS has a four-person team working on a current project with a small company to set up a system that scrapes data from a collection of websites and then automatically generates a report for management on a daily basis. Time (Weeks) Activity Description ImmediatePredecessor Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic A Report generation 2 9 13 B Web scraping 5 10 12 C Testing A, B 1 1 1 a) Based solely on the critical path, estimate the probability that the project will be complete within 12 weeks. (Round your answer to four decimal places.) b) Using all paths through the project network, estimate the probability that the project will be complete within 12 weeks. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)