11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new​ line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill​ Wicker, head of​ operations, has developed the following conditional values​ table:                                                                                                                   Alternatives                        Favorable Market         Unfavorable Market      Major renovation                    ​$100,000                  -​$90,000 Minor renovation                    $40,000                    -​$20,000  Do nothing                            $0                               $0                 ​   Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market. Part 2 ​a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. A. Minor Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable -20,000 Unfavorable Favorable Major 100,000 -90,000 Do nothing 0 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) B. Minor Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable -20,000 Unfavorable Favorable Major 100,000 -90,000 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) C. Minor Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable 20,000 Unfavorable Favorable Major 100,000 90,000 Do nothing 0 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) D. Minor Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable -20,000 Unfavorable Favorable Major 100,000 -90,000 Do nothing 0

Practical Management Science
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ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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Chapter5: Network Models
Section5.3: Assignment Models
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11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new​ line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill​ Wicker, head of​ operations, has developed the following conditional values​ table:
                                                                                                                 
Alternatives                        Favorable Market         Unfavorable Market     

Major renovation                    ​$100,000                  -​$90,000
Minor renovation                    $40,000                    -​$20,000
 Do nothing                            $0                               $0
               

 
Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.
Part 2
​a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.
A.
Minor
Favorable
40,000
Unfavorable
-20,000
Unfavorable
Favorable
Major
100,000
-90,000
Do nothing
0
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
B.
Minor
Favorable
40,000
Unfavorable
-20,000
Unfavorable
Favorable
Major
100,000
-90,000
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
C.
Minor
Favorable
40,000
Unfavorable
20,000
Unfavorable
Favorable
Major
100,000
90,000
Do nothing
0
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
D.
Minor
Favorable
40,000
Unfavorable
-20,000
Unfavorable
Favorable
Major
100,000
-90,000
Do nothing
0

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