8 From the following pay-off table, find the best strategy i) Maximax criteria is applied ii) Maximin criteria is applied. Strategy Natures Ni N2 N3 S1 200 50 40 S2 100 60 30 S3 40 30 10
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- Once QBA 362 final exam is done, it will be time to reward Professor Hong with a well-deserved vacation. As a state employee, professor Hong hasn’t seen a raise since... well, ever.Thus, an important criterion, in fact the most important criterion is to find an exoticregion that can be visited inexpensively. There are three states of nature that could impact costs in these five areas of interest. Professor Hong has determined the average cost per day to visit each region under each of the possible states of nature. This table, which should not be construed as actual vacation advice, appears below. (Remember they are costs. Lower is better. For example, the most optimistic case is the one with lowest cost.) Region Strong Dollar Middling Dollar Weak Dollar Eastern Europe 33 54 57 Southeast Asia 41 56 36 Australia 45 44 58 Galapagos Islands 37 35 26…What are the pros and cons of using Factorial Designs? What can and should you do to minimize the cons? (if you can also answer, but first Q is most important: What are post hoc tests and when should they be used? Why are they important?)Explain with all necessary mathematical details as how would you determine the risk-neutral geometric Brownian motion price of an up-and-out European barrier option using the multiperiod binomial model?
- The television show Lett3rs has been successful for many years. That show recently had a share of 19, which means, that among the TV sets in use, 19% were tuned to Lett3rs. An advertiser wants to verify that 19% share value by conducting its own survey, and a pilot survey begins with 10 households have TV sets in use at the time of a Lett3rs broadcast. If at most one household is tuned to Lett3rs, does it appear that the 19% share value is wrong? (Hint: Is the occurrence of at most one household tuned to Lett3rs unusual?) A. no, it is not wrongB. yes, it is wrongUG can only properly release a limited number of games, even though they have a number of candidates in development. They are trying to figure out which game they should release next quarter among four possibilities (and in so doing, gain some insight into how to make such decisions in the future). There is some uncertainty as the projected profitability of the release depends on the state of the gaming market 6 months in the future. Based on their experience, UG has provided an estimate of profit for a “good” gaming market and a “bad” gaming market for the four candidate games (see below). Even with these estimates, though, UG managers are unsure which game to choose. UG managers consider themselves to be optimistic about the future but would like to consider a large variety of ways to make this decision. When asked how likely they think it is that the market will be good, UG said “about a 65% chance”. UG mentioned that they are curious about “opportunity loss”, but they have…UG can only properly release a limited number of games, even though they have a number of candidates in development. They are trying to figure out which game they should release next quarter among four possibilities (and in so doing, gain some insight into how to make such decisions in the future). There is some uncertainty as the projected profitability of the release depends on the state of the gaming market 6 months in the future. Based on their experience, UG has provided an estimate of profit for a “good” gaming market and a “bad” gaming market for the four candidate games (see below). Even with these estimates, though, UG managers are unsure which game to choose. UG managers consider themselves to be optimistic about the future but would like to consider a large variety of ways to make this decision. When asked how likely they think it is that the market will be good, UG said “about a 65% chance”. UG mentioned that they are curious about “opportunity loss”, but they have…
- In a particular year in your health jurisdiction, there were 1000 births. In reviewing their birth certificates, you found that 72 had low birthweights (<2500 gms), and 158 had mothers who smoked during pregnancy. Of the mothers who smoked during pregnancy, you found that 19 had low birth weight babies .Show calculations To explore the relationship between maternal smoking and the occurrence of low birth weight, construct the following a 2 x 2 contingency table. What are the relative risks for each of the two sets of mothers? What is the relative risk ratio?A polling organization has been hired to conduct a survey to determine the proportion of people who are likely to support an upcoming ballot initiative. To help determine the size of the sample required for the main poll, a preliminary poll of 20 people is taken that yields the results below. (Yes indicates that the person will support the initiative, No indicates that they won't.) YesYesNoNoNoYesYesYesYesYesYesNoNoYesYesNoYesYesNoNoYesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesNoNoYesNoNoNo Based on the results of the peliminary poll, how large a sample is required for the main poll, assuming that the main poll should have a margin of error of 3% and a confidence level of 97.8%. Sample Size =A farmer wants to decide which of the three crops he should plant on his 100-acre farm. The profit from each is dependent on the rainfall during the growing seasons. The farmer has categorized the amount of rainfall as high, medium, low. His estimated profit for each is shown in the table. If the farmer wishes to plant only one crop, decide which will be his choice using the EQUALLY-LIKELY rule, prove your judgement by comparing the average pay-offs for each crop. (Indicate the equally likely pay-off in each crop, comparison and the right choice).
- For the following payoff table, the probability of event 1 is 0.8, the probability of event 2 is 0.1, and the probability of event 3 is 0.1 ACTION ACTION EVENT A ($) B ($) 1 50 10 2 300 100 3 500 200 a. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion b. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion c. Explain the meaning of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) in this problemA farmer wants to decide which of the three crops he should plant on his 100-acre farm. The profit from each is dependent on the rainfall during the growing seasons. The farmer has categorized the amount of rainfall as high, medium, low. His estimated profit for each is shown in the table. If the farmer wishes to plant only one crop, decide which will be his choice using the EQUALLY-LIKELY rule, prove your judgement by comparing the average pay-offs for each crop. (Indicate the equally-likely pay-off in each crop, comparison and the right choice).An explosion at a construction site could haveoccurred as the result of static electricity, malfunctioningof equipment, carelessness, or sabotage. Interviews withconstruction engineers analyzing the risks involved ledto the estimates that such an explosion would occur withprobability 0.25 as a result of static electricity, 0.20 as aresult of malfunctioning of equipment, 0.40 as a result ofcarelessness, and 0.75 as a result of sabotage. It is alsofelt that the prior probabilities of the four causes of theexplosion are 0.20, 0.40, 0.25, and 0.15. Based on all thisinformation, what is(a) the most likely cause of the explosion;(b) the least likely cause of the explosion?