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(a) (b) (c) (d) Data on quarterly electricity sales revenue (in million £) of an electricity company during a period of 6 years from 2017 to 2022 are given below. Quarter 1 2 3 4 2017 172 227 310 222 2018 169 218 309 209 2019 182 218 313 224 2020 169 245 299 221 2021 179 235 292 213 2022 170 241 307 217 Draw a time series plot and comment on any noticeable patterns in the series. Suggest an appropriate time series model for the data, giving your reasons for choosing this model. Describe your model and obtain estimates of the components of the model using the decomposition method. You may use Excel in your calculations, but must hand in a clear readable version of your worksheet output and the formulae. Using your model forecast the company's sales for the four quarters of 2023. Show clearly your calculations. What can be said about the expected accuracy of your forecast? On the basis of your model in part (b), compare and contrast the decomposition method with the exponential smoothing method in time series analysis. You are not required to do any calculations for this part.

(a) (b) (c) (d) Data on quarterly electricity sales revenue (in million £) of an electricity company during a period of 6 years from 2017 to 2022 are given below. Quarter 1 2 3 4 2017 172 227 310 222 2018 169 218 309 209 2019 182 218 313 224 2020 169 245 299 221 2021 179 235 292 213 2022 170 241 307 217 Draw a time series plot and comment on any noticeable patterns in the series. Suggest an appropriate time series model for the data, giving your reasons for choosing this model. Describe your model and obtain estimates of the components of the model using the decomposition method. You may use Excel in your calculations, but must hand in a clear readable version of your worksheet output and the formulae. Using your model forecast the company's sales for the four quarters of 2023. Show clearly your calculations. What can be said about the expected accuracy of your forecast? On the basis of your model in part (b), compare and contrast the decomposition method with the exponential smoothing method in time series analysis. You are not required to do any calculations for this part.

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability
Section10.2: Arithmetic Sequences
Problem 67E
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(a) (b) (c) (d) Data on quarterly electricity sales revenue (in million £) of an electricity company during a period of 6 years from 2017 to 2022 are given below. Quarter 1 2 3 4 2017 172 227 310 222 2018 169 218 309 209 2019 182 218 313 224 2020 169 245 299 221 2021 179 235 292 213 2022 170 241 307 217 Draw a time series plot and comment on any noticeable patterns in the series. Suggest an appropriate time series model for the data, giving your reasons for choosing this model. Describe your model and obtain estimates of the components of the model using the decomposition method. You may use Excel in your calculations, but must hand in a clear readable version of your worksheet output and the formulae. Using your model forecast the company's sales for the four quarters of 2023. Show clearly your calculations. What can be said about the expected accuracy of your forecast? On the basis of your model in part (b), compare and contrast the decomposition method with the exponential smoothing method in time series analysis. You are not required to do any calculations for this part.
Transcribed Image Text:(a) (b) (c) (d) Data on quarterly electricity sales revenue (in million £) of an electricity company during a period of 6 years from 2017 to 2022 are given below. Quarter 1 2 3 4 2017 172 227 310 222 2018 169 218 309 209 2019 182 218 313 224 2020 169 245 299 221 2021 179 235 292 213 2022 170 241 307 217 Draw a time series plot and comment on any noticeable patterns in the series. Suggest an appropriate time series model for the data, giving your reasons for choosing this model. Describe your model and obtain estimates of the components of the model using the decomposition method. You may use Excel in your calculations, but must hand in a clear readable version of your worksheet output and the formulae. Using your model forecast the company's sales for the four quarters of 2023. Show clearly your calculations. What can be said about the expected accuracy of your forecast? On the basis of your model in part (b), compare and contrast the decomposition method with the exponential smoothing method in time series analysis. You are not required to do any calculations for this part.
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