Answered: A begin “someone has Covid” and B being…

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Related questions

Question

prosecutor’s fallacy-
A begin “someone has Covid” and B being “someone tests positive.”

A girl you know emails you and explains that she has a sore throat
(a common symptoms of Covid, but symptoms of other things as well).
Use real world analysis and this formula to approximate the probability of her having Covid.
For this, you will need to find the best choices for A and B in the given formula, then make
different estimates about real-world facts. Be sure to state any estimates you make,
and give a citation of any sources.

As of 2/16/2022, 7.5% of the tests are reported positive.
40.5% of the asymptotic people really have COVID

Expert Solution

Step 1

Given information:

Lets assume that:

$\begin{array}{rcl} A & = & Someone having Covid \\ B & = & Having Sore thoat \\ P (A) & = & 5 % (Approximated from research) \\ = & \frac{5}{100} \\ = & 0.05 \\ P (\frac{Sore throat}{Covid}) & = & 20 % (Approximated from research) \\ = & \frac{20}{100} \\ = & 0.20 \\ P (\frac{Sore throat}{No Covid}) & = & 4 % (Approximated from research) \\ = & \frac{4}{100} \\ = & 0.04 \end{array}$