A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High 90 Low Buy 10 Rent 35 40 60 Lease 50 Prior Probability 0.7 0.3 Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Best decision Payoff
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- Refer to the following payoff table (values are profit): State of Nature Alternative S1 S2 A1 75 −40 A2 0 100 Prior Probability 0.6 0.4 What is the expected payoff of the decision strategy (i.e. using the EMV/EP criterion)?The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 d1 200 150 150 d2 250 150 100 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.55, P(s2) = 0.25, and P(s3) = 0.2. (a) What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? S1 : S2 : S3 : (b) What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (a)? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (d) What is the expected value of perfect information? If required, round your answer to one decimal place.An analyst has modeled the stock of Crisp Trucking using a two-factor APTmodel. The risk-free rate is 6%, the expected return on the first factor (r1) is12%, and the expected return on the second factor (r2) is 8%. If bi1 5= 0.7 andbi2 5= 0.9, what is Crisp’s required return?
- Choices for the last requirement, "determine the approximate internal rate of return from the choicies (pick the closest answer. a. 29% b. 20% c. 26% d. 22%Translate the following monetary payoffs into utilities for a decision maker whose utility function is described by an exponential function with R = 250: –$200, –$100, $0, $100, $200, $300, $400, $500.A firm has three investment alternatives. Payoffs are in thousands of dollars. a. Using the expected value approach, which decision is preferred? b. For the lottery having a payoff of 100,000 with probability p and 0 with probability (1 p), two decision makers expressed the following indifference probabilities. Find the most preferred decision for each decision maker using the expected utility approach. c. Why dont decision makers A and B select the same decision alternative?
- APT An analyst has modeled the stock of Crisp Trucking using a two-factor APT model. The risk-free rate is 6%, the expected return on the first factor (r1) is 12%, and the expected return on the second factor (r2) is 8%. If bi1 = 0.7 and bi2 = 0.9, what is Crisp’s required return?Consider a decision maker who is comfortable with an investment decision that has a 50% chance of earning $25,000 and a 50% chance of losing $12,500, but not with any larger investments that have the same relative payoffs. Write the equation for the exponential function that approximates this decision maker’s utility function. Plot the exponential utility function for this decision maker for x values between –20,000 and 35,000. Is this decision maker risk-seeking, risk-neutral, or risk-averse? Suppose the decision maker decides that she would actually be willing to make an investment that has a 50% chance of earning $30,000 and a 50% chance of losing $15,000. Plot the exponential function that approximates this utility function and compare it to the utility function from part (b). Is the decision maker becoming more risk-seeking or more risk-averse?In Problem 22, if P(s1) = 0.25, P(s2) = 0.50, and P(s3) = 0.25, find a recommended decision for each of the three decision makers. (Note: For the same decision problem, different utilities can lead to different decisions.) 22. Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the following decision problem (payoff in dollars): The indifference probabilities are as follows: a. Plot the utility function for money for each decision maker. b. Classify each decision maker as a risk avoider, a risk taker, or risk-neutral. c. For the payoff of 20, what is the premium that the risk avoider will pay to avoid risk? What is the premium that the risk taker will pay to have the opportunity of the high payoff?
- The following profit payoff table was presented in Problem 1: The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.65, P(s2) = 0.15, and P(s3) = 0.20. What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (a)? Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value? What is the expected value of perfect information?Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the following decision problem (payoff in dollars): The indifference probabilities are as follows: Plot the utility function for money for each decision maker. Classify each decision maker as a risk avoider, a risk taker, or risk-neutral. For the payoff of 20, what is the premium that the risk avoider will pay to avoid risk? What is the premium that the risk taker will pay to have the opportunity of the high payoff?The following results were obtained in a decision problem where payoffs are profits: EVSI EVwithPI 612 4300 If the efficiency of sample information is 30%, what is the maximum expected monetary value? Maximum EMV =