A political candidate wants to enter a primary in a district with 100,000 eligible voters, but only if he has a good chance of winning. He hires a survey organization, which takes a simple random sample of 1600 voters. In the sample, 880 favor the candidate, so the percentage is 55%. This is good news but we need to understand the chance error. To find out the standard
QUESTION 3
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A political candidate wants to enter a primary in a district with 100,000 eligible voters, but only if he has a good chance of winning. He hires a survey organization, which takes a simple random sample of 1600 voters. In the sample, 880 favor the candidate, so the percentage is 55%. This is good news but we need to understand the chance error.
To find out the standard error, we need the SD of the box. But to compute this, we need the actual number of people out of 100,000 who would vote for him. We don't have this information. We'll use the bootstrap method which will use the sample information to approximate the population information to compute the SD of the box.
Using the sample data, the SD of the box is estimated to be . Write your answer in the format 0.A where A is an integer. Use the short-cut formula for the SD.
The standard error(SE) for the number of people who favor the candidate is .
The SE for percentage is %. Write the answer in the format A.BC where A, B and C are integers.
Thus, the survey shows that the candidate is likely to get about % of the vote, give or take % or so.
The survey organization is 95% confident that the between % and % will vote for him.
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