a simple rule of thumb that can be applied to decisions of this nature, given any deductible amount d, extra surveillance cost c, and burglary probabilities p1 (without surveillance) and p2 (with surveillance).

a simple rule of thumb that can be applied to decisions of this nature, given any deductible amount d, extra surveillance cost c, and burglary probabilities p1 (without surveillance) and p2 (with surveillance).

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

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A new edition of a very popular textbook will be published a year from now. The publisher currently has 1000 copies on hand and is deciding whether to do another printing before the new edition comes out. The publisher estimates that demand for the book during the next year is governed by the probability distribution in the file P10_31.xlsx. A production run incurs a fixed cost of 15,000 plus a variable cost of 20 per book printed. Books are sold for 190 per book. Any demand that cannot be met incurs a penalty cost of 30 per book, due to loss of goodwill. Up to 1000 of any leftover books can be sold to Barnes and Noble for 45 per book. The publisher is interested in maximizing expected profit. The following print-run sizes are under consideration: 0 (no production run) to 16,000 in increments of 2000. What decision would you recommend? Use simulation with 1000 replications. For your optimal decision, the publisher can be 90% certain that the actual profit associated with remaining sales of the current edition will be between what two values?
Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
A common decision is whether a company should buy equipment and produce a product in house or outsource production to another company. If sales volume is high enough, then by producing in house, the savings on unit costs will cover the fixed cost of the equipment. Suppose a company must make such a decision for a four-year time horizon, given the following data. Use simulation to estimate the probability that producing in house is better than outsourcing. If the company outsources production, it will have to purchase the product from the manufacturer for 25 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The company will sell the product for 42 per unit. This price will remain constant for the next four years. If the company produces the product in house, it must buy a 500,000 machine that is depreciated on a straight-line basis over four years, and its cost of production will be 9 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The demand in year 1 has a worst case of 10,000 units, a most likely case of 14,000 units, and a best case of 16,000 units. The average annual growth in demand for years 2-4 has a worst case of 7%, a most likely case of 15%, and a best case of 20%. Whatever this annual growth is, it will be the same in each of the years. The tax rate is 35%. Cash flows are discounted at 8% per year.
You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.
Six months before its annual convention, the American Medical Association must determine how many rooms to reserve. At this time, the AMA can reserve rooms at a cost of 150 per room. The AMA believes the number of doctors attending the convention will be normally distributed with a mean of 5000 and a standard deviation of 1000. If the number of people attending the convention exceeds the number of rooms reserved, extra rooms must be reserved at a cost of 250 per room. a. Use simulation with @RISK to determine the number of rooms that should be reserved to minimize the expected cost to the AMA. Try possible values from 4100 to 4900 in increments of 100. b. Redo part a for the case where the number attending has a triangular distribution with minimum value 2000, maximum value 7000, and most likely value 5000. Does this change the substantive results from part a?
It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
Come up with a simple rule of thumb that can be applied to decisions of this nature, given any deductible amount d, extra surveillance cost c, and burglary probabilities p1 (without surveillance) and p2 (with surveillance).
Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of several different jam products. One product is an organic jam that has no preservatives, sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of jam to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 7 cases is 0.10, for 8 cases it is 0.25, for 9 cases it is 0.45, and for 10 cases it is 0.20. The cost of every case is $50, and the price Susan gets for each case is $90. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. Based on the given information, Susan's conditional profits table for jam is: Demand 7 cases 8 cases 9 cases 10 cases Produce p=0.10 p=0.25 p=0.45 p=0.20 7 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here 8 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here…
Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of several different jam products. One product is an organic jam that has no preservatives, sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of jam to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 7 cases is 0.10, for 8 cases it is 0.25, for 9 cases it is 0.45, and for 10 cases it is 0.20. The cost of every case is $50, and the price Susan gets for each case is $90. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. Based on the given information, Susan's conditional profits table for jam is: Demand 7 cases 8 cases 9 cases 10 cases Produce p=0.10 p=0.25 p=0.45 p=0.20 7 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here 8 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here…
Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of several different jam products. One product is an organic jam that has no preservatives, sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of jam to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 5 cases is 0.10, for 6 cases it is 0.25, for 7 cases it is 0.50, and for 8 cases it is 0.15 The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $90. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. Based on the given information, Susan's conditional profits table for jam is: Demand 5 cases 6 cases 7 cases 8 cases Produce =0.10 0.25 0.50 0.15 5 cases Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.
1. How will the price we offer to a group buyer today affect his or her decision to buy from us in the future? 2. If the price is accepted by the group, what impact will that have on the number of room reservation requests for that same night that we will likely be required to refuse to individual buyers because all our rooms have been sold? 3. Does the price consider the specific type of room desired by the group? Does the price consider the probability that this group will: a. Cancel at the last minute? b. No-show? c. Arrive early? d. Stay more than one night? 4. How has the price been influenced by the prices our competitors are likely to quote to the same group? 5. What are the likely secondary sources of revenue (i.e., food and beverage sales, meeting room rentals, and the like) that this group could provide if they accept our price? 6. What, if any, is the hotel's historical relationship with: a group? Other groups of this same type? 7. Has the quoted price been influenced…
Michelle owns a house in which she keeps valuables worth 100,000 which can get stolen with probability 1%. She can purchase coverage C of the amount C ∈ [0; 100,000] at premium π = 0.05 dollars for each dollar covered. Her Bernouilli utility function is u(w) = ln(w). Assume she has no other assets. 1. Set up her maximization problem. 2. How much insurance will she choose to buy? 3. How much profits does the insurance company earn on insuring Michelle? 4. Does the fact that the insurance company earn profits mean that Michelle is worse off com-pared to the situation in which she is not insured? Explain what is happening. 5. How much insurance will she buy if insurance companies charge an actuarially fair insurance rate?