A small bakery serves very popular fresh meat pies every day. The cost of making each pie is $2, and they are sold for $5 each. Unsold pies at the end of the day will be put for a quick sale for $1.00 each, and they are always sold out. The record of the past daily sales of the pies is presented below. Demand 100 150 200 250 300 350 Probability 10% 20% 25% 25% 15% 5% Answer the following question by showing the calculations: a. Construct a table of profits or losses for each possible quantity of the pies based on the demands as recorded above. How many pies should the bakery make every day to maximize the profit? b. Confirm your answer in sub-question a) using a full marginal analysis based on the costs of overestimating and underestimating demands.

A small bakery serves very popular fresh meat pies every day. The cost of making each pie is $2, and they are sold for $5 each. Unsold pies at the end of the day will be put for a quick sale for $1.00 each, and they are always sold out. The record of the past daily sales of the pies is presented below. Demand 100 150 200 250 300 350 Probability 10% 20% 25% 25% 15% 5% Answer the following question by showing the calculations: a. Construct a table of profits or losses for each possible quantity of the pies based on the demands as recorded above. How many pies should the bakery make every day to maximize the profit? b. Confirm your answer in sub-question a) using a full marginal analysis based on the costs of overestimating and underestimating demands.

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 17.4IP

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

If a person has a medical condition that has a quality of life index of 0.75, and the condition persisted for two years, then the individual would experience: a. 0.25 QALYs b. 1.50 c 0.50 d 0.75
Cutey Barber Salon Cutey Barber Salon is a trendy barber salon that is located in a densely populated city called Maple. Demand for the services offered by the salon is fairly high. It offers services such as haircuts, hair styling, scalp massaging and conditioning treatment, straight razor and wet shave, beard sculpting, facials and hair colouring. In addition to these services provided, the salon sells premium hair products to customers. The salon has the ability to produce a maximum of 20,000 haircuts and hairstyling per year. Demand for haircuts and hairstyling over the last five years can be seen in the following table:- Year Demand for haircuts and hairstyling 2017 11,500 2018 12,200 2019 13,400 2020 14,000 2021 14,500 Although the business does not have a written vision and mission statement, it is clear in the minds of management what they want to achieve and what they would like to be in the future. Currently, customers can walk in at…
The current average diesel price is about 145 pence per litre. Your friend firmly believes that the average diesel price will shoot over 160 pence per litre for the Christmas period due to supply and logistics problems while you think, with the mitigation policies from the government, that there is a 60% probability that it will remain below 160 pence per litre. The two of you decide to bet on the outcome with x pounds: if you win, your friend pays you x pounds and vice versa. Your current wealth is 5,000 pounds which is also the maximum amount you can bet. As an expected utility maximiser, should you bet, and why or why not? If you do bet, what is the optimal amount that you should bet to maximise your expected utility?
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…
1. Individual Problems 18-1 You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $88 or $110 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Combination Number Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) 1 $88 $88 $88 0.125 2 $88 $88 $110 0.125 3 $88 $110 $88 0.125 4 $88 $110 $110 0.125 5 $110 $88 $88 0.125 6 $110 $88 $110 0.125 7 $110 $110 $88 0.125 8 $110 $110 $110 0.125 The expected price paid is . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders…
Market: Motorcycles. Scenario: Consumers learn that cars will be much more heavily taxed starting with next year’s models.
A U.S. exporter has a receivable of 20 million Canadian dollars (C$), due in 30 days. Name and briefly explain two risks the exporter faces.
4.7 Hudson Corporation is considering three options for managing its data processing operation: continuing with its own staff, hiring an outside vendor to do the managing (referred to as outsourcing), or using a combination of its own staff and an outside vendor. The cost of the operation depends on future demand. The annual cost of each option (in thousands of dollars) depends on demand as follows: Demand Staffing Options High Medium Low Own staff 650 650 600 Outside vendor 900 600 300 Combination 800 650 500 If the demand probabilities are 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3, and the table below shows the total cost of the different options, construct a risk profile for the optimal decision in the table. Option Total Cost Own Staff 635 Outside Vendor 570 Combination 635
The prizes that can be one and a sweepstakes are listed below together with the chances of winning each one: $5900(1 chance in 8600); $2700(1 chance in 5000);$600(1 chance in 4800);$200(1chance in 2500). Find the expected value of the amount won for one entry if the cost of entering is 52 cents