A truth serum has the property that 93% of the guilty suspects are properly judged while, of course, 7% of the guilty suspects are improperly found innocent. On the other hand, innocent suspects are misjudged 3% of the time. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 7% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent? Use Bayes theorem to solve.

A truth serum has the property that 93% of the guilty suspects are properly judged while, of course, 7% of the guilty suspects are improperly found innocent. On the other hand, innocent suspects are misjudged 3% of the time. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 7% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent? Use Bayes theorem to solve.

College Algebra

10th Edition

ISBN:9781337282291

Author:Ron Larson

Publisher:Ron Larson

Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability

Section8.7: Probability

Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....

See similar textbooks