a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022.

a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models

Problem 28P: The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present...

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Question

Asvnch Problem - Statistical Forecasting
Data Set – Eunice BC Fashion Monthly Sales, in million units.
Year
Total Sales
Year
Total Sales
2010
38
2016
43
2011
41
2017
40
2012
40
2018
45
2013
45
2019
47
2014
50
2020
42
2015
42
2021
48
Questions:
a. Find the naïve forecast.
b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast.
c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average.
d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2.
e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast.
f. Find the best forecast for year 2022.
Note:
Use the first 5 years as the training samples and the last 5 years as the forecasting samples.
Solve it in Excel Sheet/Sheet with Equations as possible.

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