An investor has patented a new device, and a bank is willing to lend the money to manufacture the device. Preliminary investigation establishes a suitable planning period of 5 years for the comparison of payoffs from this invention. According to the investor’s analysis, profit of $800,000 can be anticipated over the next 5 years if sales are strong; if sales are average, the investor can expect to make $200,000; and if sales are week, the investor expects to loss $50,000. Nationwide Enterprises, Inc. has offered to purchase the patent rights. Based on royalty arrangement, the inventor estimates that selling the patent rights may well bring a net profit of $400,000 if sales are strong, $70,000 if sales are average and $10,000 if sales are week. On the basis of extensive investigation of past experience with similar devices, the investor assigns the probabilities for strong, average, and week sales to be 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3 respectively. 1. Setup the payoff table for the inventor’s problem? 2. Find the EMV for each act and determine the maximal act? 3. Setup the opportunity loss table for each act and determine the minimal act based on minimal expected opportunity loss. 4. Compute the Expected Value with Perfect Information? 5. Compute the EVPI? 6. Draw the decision tree diagram.
An investor has patented a new device, and a bank is willing to lend the money to manufacture the device. Preliminary investigation establishes a suitable planning period of 5 years for the comparison of payoffs from this invention. According to the investor’s analysis, profit of $800,000 can be anticipated over the next 5 years if sales are strong; if sales are average, the investor can expect to make $200,000; and if sales are week, the investor expects to loss $50,000. Nationwide Enterprises, Inc. has offered to purchase the patent rights. Based on royalty arrangement, the inventor estimates that selling the patent rights may well bring a net profit of $400,000 if sales are strong, $70,000 if sales are average and $10,000 if sales are week. On the basis of extensive investigation of past experience with similar devices, the investor assigns the probabilities for strong, average, and week sales to be 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3 respectively.
1. Setup the payoff table for the inventor’s problem?
2. Find the EMV for each act and determine the maximal act?
3. Setup the opportunity loss table for each act and determine the minimal act based on minimal expected opportunity loss.
4. Compute the Expected Value with Perfect Information?
5. Compute the EVPI?
6. Draw the decision tree diagram.
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