* answer D"    For the following situation draw a PERT network, and determine the following: a-     Critical path b-    ES,LS,EF,LF and slack time for each activity   Activity Immediate  predecessor(s) Optimistic  time Most probabl time Pessimistic  time Crashing cost/day $$ Minimum expected completion time   A   1 1 1 900 1   B A 3 6 8 400 2 C A 4 5 6 700 3 D A 2 3 4 800 3 E A 9 9 15     F B 7 8 8 300 5 G B 4 7 9 500 3 H C 1 3 9 700 3 I D 5 6 7     J F,G,H 3 4 8 1100 2 K H,I 2 3 7 650 3 L H,I 7 7 8 300 4 M D 8 9 15     N M 10 15 17 1400 7 O M 3 6 9 600 4 P D 6 12 13 550 7 Q M 8 9 12 980 4 R P,Q 3 6 7     S O,R 7 8 12     T J,K,L,N 6 7 12 520 5 U J,K 4 5 5     V J,K 2 2 2 100 1 W E,S,T,U,V 5 6 9     X E,S,T,U,V 9 10 10 650 3 Y W 3 4 6 50 2 Z X,Y 7 8 9   4     c-     Probability to complete the project in 8 days plus the calculated expected completion time or less.         d-    Given the answers obtained in parts a and b, suppose the project has fixed costs per day of $1000. Also suppose you could reduce the length of the project’s duration by expediting certain activity’s expected time at a given cost shown in the table above to some minimum number of days, what would you recommend?

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* answer D" 

 

For the following situation draw a PERT network, and determine the following:

a-     Critical path

b-    ES,LS,EF,LF and slack time for each activity

 

Activity

Immediate  predecessor(s)

Optimistic

 time

Most probabl time

Pessimistic

 time

Crashing cost/day

$$

Minimum expected completion time

  A

 

1

1

1

900

1

  B

A

3

6

8

400

2

C

A

4

5

6

700

3

D

A

2

3

4

800

3

E

A

9

9

15

 

 

F

B

7

8

8

300

5

G

B

4

7

9

500

3

H

C

1

3

9

700

3

I

D

5

6

7

 

 

J

F,G,H

3

4

8

1100

2

K

H,I

2

3

7

650

3

L

H,I

7

7

8

300

4

M

D

8

9

15

 

 

N

M

10

15

17

1400

7

O

M

3

6

9

600

4

P

D

6

12

13

550

7

Q

M

8

9

12

980

4

R

P,Q

3

6

7

 

 

S

O,R

7

8

12

 

 

T

J,K,L,N

6

7

12

520

5

U

J,K

4

5

5

 

 

V

J,K

2

2

2

100

1

W

E,S,T,U,V

5

6

9

 

 

X

E,S,T,U,V

9

10

10

650

3

Y

W

3

4

6

50

2

Z

X,Y

7

8

9

 

4

 

 

c-     Probability to complete the project in 8 days plus the calculated expected completion time or less.        

d-    Given the answers obtained in parts a and b, suppose the project has fixed costs per day of $1000. Also suppose you could reduce the length of the project’s duration by expediting certain activity’s expected time at a given cost shown in the table above to some minimum number of days, what would you recommend?

  1. Task with 0 slack will be critical tasks and will together form a critical path.

 

Critical path = A-D-M-Q-R-S-W-Y-Z with duration = 55.83 unit time

 

 

  1.   Z= Specified time - path expected time / Path standard Time 

σpath²= variance of path 

√σ² =sqrt(3.86) = 1.96

Specified time =55.83 +8 = 63.83

Path expected time = 55.83 = Maximum duration “days” 

z= 63.83 - 55.83 / 1.96

z= 4.08 

Probability of completing the task =  22 week 



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