Assume the probability of contracting COVID-19 is 0.09 (p(C = 1) = 0.09). Assume the probability of COVID antibody test of a person becomes positive given the person has COVID-19 is 0.90 (p(T = 1|C = 1) = 0.9) and the probability of COVID antibody test of a person becomes negative given the person does not have COVID-19 is 0.99 (p(T=0C = 0) = 0.99). What is the probability of a person having COVID-19 given his/her antibody test is positive (p(C = 1 |T = 1))? Hint: You need to use the Bayes rule. Show all of your calculations.

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability
Section10.8: Probability
Problem 31E
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Assume the probability of contracting COVID-19 is 0.09 (p(C = 1) = 0.09). Assume the probability of COVID
antibody test of a person becomes positive given the person has COVID-19 is 0.90 (p(T = 1|C = 1) = 0.9)
and the probability of COVID antibody test of a person becomes negative given the person does not have
COVID-19 is 0.99 (p(T=0|C= 0) = 0.99). What is the probability of a person having COVID-19 given
his/her antibody test is positive (p(C = 1 |T = 1))?
Hint: You need to use the Bayes rule.
Show all of your calculations.
Transcribed Image Text:Assume the probability of contracting COVID-19 is 0.09 (p(C = 1) = 0.09). Assume the probability of COVID antibody test of a person becomes positive given the person has COVID-19 is 0.90 (p(T = 1|C = 1) = 0.9) and the probability of COVID antibody test of a person becomes negative given the person does not have COVID-19 is 0.99 (p(T=0|C= 0) = 0.99). What is the probability of a person having COVID-19 given his/her antibody test is positive (p(C = 1 |T = 1))? Hint: You need to use the Bayes rule. Show all of your calculations.
Expert Solution
Step 1

The question is about Bayes' rule

Given :

P ( C = 1 ) = 0.09

P ( T = 1 | C = 1 ) = 0.9

P ( T = 0 | C = 0 ) = 0.99

 

To find :

P (  C = 1 | T = 1 )

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