BioTech Research Center is working to develop a new vaccinefor the West Nile Virus. Th e project is so important that the fi rm hascreated three teams of experts to work on the project from diff erentperspectives. Team 1 has a 90 percent chance of success, team 2 an85 percent chance of success, and team 3 a 70 percent chance. Whatis the probability that BioTech will develop the vaccine
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BioTech Research Center is working to develop a new vaccine
for the West Nile Virus. Th e project is so important that the fi rm has
created three teams of experts to work on the project from diff erent
perspectives. Team 1 has a 90 percent chance of success, team 2 an
85 percent chance of success, and team 3 a 70 percent chance. What
is the probability that BioTech will develop the vaccine
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- Maverick Ltd is considering whether to develop and market a new product. Development the costs are estimated to be R180 000, and there is a 0.75 probability that development effort will be successful and a 0.25 probability that the development effort will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed and it is estimated that:a. If the product is very successful profits will be R540 000;b. If the product is moderately successful profits will be R100 000;c. If the product is a failure, there will be a loss of R400 000.Each of the above profit and loss calculations is after taking into account the development costs of R180 000. The estimated probabilities of each of the above events are as follows:d. Very successful 40%e. Moderately successful 30%f. Failure 30%Required3.1. Construct a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above (7)3.2. Calculate the Expected Value (8)Gotham City has 10,000 streetlights. City investigatorshave determined that at any given time, an average of 1,000lights are burned out. A streetlight burns out after an averageof 100 days of use. The city has hired Mafia, Inc., to replaceburned-out lamps. Mafia, Inc.’s contract states that thecompany is supposed to replace a burned-out street lamp inan average of 7 days. Do you think that Mafia, Inc. is livingup to the contract?OPERATIONS RESEARCH TWO Sakala is interested in developing and marketing a new drug. The cost of extensive research to develop the drug would be K100,000. The manager of research programme said that there is 60% chance that the drug will be developed successfully. The market potential is assessed as follows with present value of profit: Market conditions Probability Present value of profits (K) Large market potential 0.1 500,000 Moderate market potential 0.6 220,000 Low market potential 0.3 80,000 The present value figures do not include the cost of research. While Mr. Sakala was considering this proposal, another similar proposal came up which also required the investment of K100,000 .The present value of profit for the second proposal wasK120,000. The return on the investment in the second proposal is almost certain. Draw a decision tree for Mr. Sakala indicating all choices and events What decision Mr. Sakala should take regarding the…
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that ther is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product. Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; If weiss adds an assembley line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $15,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition adn ATR does not produce a competitive product, weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, weiss expects a loss of $100,000 a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option=$____Sarah Chang is the owner of a small electronics company. In six months, a proposal is due for an electronic timing system for the next Olympic Games. For several years, Chang’s company has been developing a new microprocessor, a critical component in a timing system that would be superior to any product currently on the market. However, progress in research and development has been slow, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can produce the microprocessor in time. If they succeed in developing the microprocessor (probability p1), there is an excellent chance (probability p2) that Chang’s company will win the $1 million Olympic contract. If they do not, there is a small chance (probability p3) that she will still be able to win the same contract with an alternative but inferior timing system that has already been developed. If she continues the project, Chang must invest $200,000 in research and development. In addition, making a proposal (which she will decide whether to do after…Sarah Chang is the owner of a small electronics company. In six months, a proposal is due for an electronic timing system for the next Olympic Games. For several years, Chang’s company has been developing a new microprocessor, a critical component in a timing system that would be superior to any product currently on the market. However, progress in research and development has been slow, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can produce the microprocessor in time. If they succeed in developing the microprocessor (probability p1), there is an excellent chance (probability p2) that Chang’s company will win the $1 million Olympic contract. If they do not, there is a small chance (probability p3) that she will still be able to win the same contract with an alternative but inferior timing system that has already been developed. If she continues the project, Chang must invest $200,000 in research and development. In addition, making a proposal (which she will decide whether to do after…
- A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of sixmonths. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as thefixed costs of the venture as shown below:Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2 Page 5 of 80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.560 000 0.1 K500 000 0.31.0 1.0 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contributionMo. The company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is it worth eliminating uncertainty about finding the oil? Calculate EVPI to justify your…The medical team at Birzeit Hospital are not sure whether to buy the COVID-19 vaccine from supplier A, B, or C. The analysis of previous experience dealing with the three suppliers reveals the following vaccine quality: Percent of ineffective vaccines Probability for Supplier A Probability for Supplier B Probability for Supplier C 2 0.60 0.50 0.70 5 0.30 0.30 0.00 7 0.10 0.20 0.30 The hospital buys 25000 vaccines each year which means that the probability to get 2% ineffective vaccines is 0.60 from supplier A, 0.50 from supplier B, and 0.70 from supplier C. Develop a decision tree to show your recommended alternative (supplier).
- Peter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store. a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).Calculate the expected value and standard deviation for the following distribution: a 10% chance of a massive project success, with profits of $1 million; a 65% chance of moderate project success, with profits of $100,000, and a 25% chance of the project bombing, with losses of -$200,000.You have two design options for your new line of high-resolution monitors for Computer-Aided Design (CAD) workstations. The production run is for 110,000 units. Design option A has a .90 probability of yielding 65 good monitors per 100 and a .10 probability of yielding 70 good monitors per 100. This design will cost $1,000,000. Design option B has a .80 probability of yielding 65 good units per 100 and a .20 probability of yielding 60 good units per 100. This design will cost $1,350,000. Good or bad, each monitor will cost $75. Each good monitor will sell for $150. Bad monitors are destroyed and have no salvage value. We ignore any disposal costs in this problem. Demonstrate how decision trees can be used in order to choose the design option based on the above situation. Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option and determine which option you will propose.