Procter, president of a food company, must decide whether to market a new breakfast drink which the R and D division has developed. A special meeting devoted to this topic yields the following information: The marketing vice-president has defined two possible outcomes for the success of this product; either the public will accept the product, or it will not. She believes that the product will be accepted with probability 0.1. The cost engineers believe that if the product is marketed and accepted, the company will net $100,000 yearly. If the product is rejected, however, the company will suffer a net loss of $20,000 yearly. If Procter decides not to market the product, her company will neither accrue more cost nor make any profit on this product. Procter always makes decisions based on the expected value of the outcomes. A. What is the best strategy in this case? B. Compute for EVPI.
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- Consider the following payoff table for three product decisions (A, B, and C) and three future market conditions (payoffs = P millions) Assume that is now possible for the company to estimate a probability of 0.40 that market condition1 will exist, 0.40 for market condition 2 and a probability of 0.20 that market condition 3 will exist in the future. Determine the best decision using expected value. Determine the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Determine the best decision using expected opportunity loss.Peter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store. a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company launches before its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it launches after its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. Using…
- Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?Maverick Ltd is considering whether to develop and market a new product. Development the costs are estimated to be R180 000, and there is a 0.75 probability that development effort will be successful and a 0.25 probability that the development effort will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed and it is estimated that:a. If the product is very successful profits will be R540 000;b. If the product is moderately successful profits will be R100 000;c. If the product is a failure, there will be a loss of R400 000.Each of the above profit and loss calculations is after taking into account the development costs of R180 000. The estimated probabilities of each of the above events are as follows:d. Very successful 40%e. Moderately successful 30%f. Failure 30%Required3.1. Construct a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above (7)3.2. Calculate the Expected Value (8)Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that ther is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product. Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; If weiss adds an assembley line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $15,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition adn ATR does not produce a competitive product, weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, weiss expects a loss of $100,000 a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option=$____Please use the payoff table (without the given prior probabilities) to answer the following questions: (a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximax criterion? (b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin criterion? (c) Which alternative should be chosen under the equally-likely criterion? (d) Which alternative should be chosen under the Hurwicz (realism) criterion for α = 0.55? (e) Develop a regret table for this decision. (f) Which alternative should be chosen under the minimax regret criterion?Kroft Food Products is attempting to decide whether it should introduce a new line of salad dressings called Special Choices. The company can test market the salad dressings in selected geographic areas or bypass the test market and introduce the product nationally. The cost of the test market is $150,000. If the company conducts the test market, it must wait to see the results before deciding whether to introduce the salad dressings nationally. The probability of a positive test market result is estimated to be 0.6. Alternatively, the company can decide not to conduct the test market and go ahead and make the decision to introduce the dressings or not. If the salad dressings are introduced nationally and are a success, the company estimates that it will realize an annual profit of $1.6 million, whereas if the dressings fail, it will incur a loss of $700,000. The company believes the probability of success for the salad dressings is 0.50 if they are introduced without the test market.…
- 1. Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose? Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1 a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives adn various levels of demand at Robert Klassan's print shop: decision low high alt 1 $10,000 $36,000 alt 2 $6,000 $38,000 alt 3 -$2500 $52,000 The probability of low demand is 0.40 whereas the probability of high demand is 0.60. a) The alternative that provides Robert the greatest expected monetary value is _________ The EMV for this decision is $_______ b) The expected value with perfect information (EVwPI)= $______ c) The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for Robert= $________Private Insurance provides coverages that can be used to meet specific loss situations. For each of the following insurance situation, identify a private insurance coverage that would provide the desired protection and explain your recommendation; A. John, 32, single parent with 1 dependent child. He recently purchased a house worth PhP 5 million, where half of this amount is mortgaged loan (PagIBIG). He wants to be certain that he would be able to pay his loan in case of disability. B. Rey, 36, married with 3 dependents. His wife is a disabled person and is unable to work. As the sole breadwinner, he wants to be sure that his family would have funds in case of his premature death. C. Marian, 44, owns a trading shop. The premises are rented. The total amount value of goods in her shop amounts to PhP 7 million. She has no savings. She wants to be certain she will be able to run her business if her shop catches fire and other loss. D. Dominic, 15, a talented motor racer. However, his…