c. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.25. Use 25 for week 2 forecast. (Round your Intermediate forecast values and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Answer is not complete.
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An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:
Week: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Requests: | 25 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
Click here for the Excel Data File
Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods:
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- What tool should we use to know whether our forecasting was under forecasted or over forcasted? Is it possible to get the same value of CFE and MAD? How? What does the value of MSE signify?Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and $50,000 for 2017 and 2018, what would you forecast for 2019. (The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year) (b) Given the forecast and actual 2019 sales of $53,000, what would you forecast for 2020Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast?
- What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times? We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument developed between two of the owners, Bob and Henry, over the accuracy of forecasting methods. Bob argued that exponential smoothing with α = .1 would be the best method. Henry argued that the shop would get a better forecast with α = .3.a. Using F1 = 100 and the data from problem 3, which of the two managers is right?b. Graph the two forecasts and the original data using Excel. What does the graph reveal?c. Maybe forecast accuracy could be improved. Try additional values of α = .2, .4, and .5 to see if better accuracy is achieved.a. Forecast demand for each week, including week 10, usingexponential smoothing with a 5 .5 (initial forecast 5 20). b. Compute the MAD. c. Compute the tracking signal. ANSWER A,B, C
- Sales of quilt covers at Bud Banis' department store in Carbondale over the past year are shown below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months (March, April, May, and June): a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management's technique.b) Do management's results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast?c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?Use the sales data in the table ( attached Image) and apply the same forecast method when α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, and 1. What is the best value for α? What does the best value of α indicate or show in regards to the forecast model? (Hint: Use Microsoft Excel to solve the question)Forecast based on averages. Given the following data: Period Number of Complaints 1 70 2 75 3 65 4 68 5 74 Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of these approaches: a. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .30, .20 b. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40