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- A project will cost $45,000 to develop.• When the system becomes operational after a one-year development period, operational costs willbe $9,000 during each year of the system’s five-year useful life.• The system will produce benefits of $30,000 in the first year of operation, and this figure willincrease by a compound 10% each year.What is the payback period for this project?Suppose a risk-neutral power plant needs 10,000 tons of coal for itsoperations next month. It is uncertain about the future price of coal. Theprice of coal today is $60 a ton but next month it could be either $40 or$68 (with equal probability). How much would the power plant be willingto pay today for an option to buy a ton of coal next month at today’sprice? (Ignore discounting over the short period of a month.)A swim club is designing a new pool to replace its old pool. The new pool would need to last for 10 years since the club is planning on relocating after 10 years. A concrete shell would cost $85,000 and last for all 10 years. Another option is to install a vinyl liner that would cost only $70,000 to install. However, the vinyl is not guaranteed to last for all 10 years, and it has a 40% chance of breaking down. Repair of the vinyl would cost $40,000 and would extend the life of the vinyl liner to the 10-year mark. If both options are acceptable to the swim club, which one minimizes cost? Support your answer with drawing a decision tree and provide your calculation.
- Case: Cash is Good, Card is Bad Arlow’s is a small retail store located in a major Midwestern city. Because of its reputation, Arlow’s has been able to attract highly competent professional sales help. All sales clerks are salaried, non-exempt employees who are well paid, but who do not receive commissions.Recently sales have flattened out because of slower economic conditions. Thinking that maybe an extra incentive will help Arlow’s through the economic dip, the store manager decided to institute a 2% commission on cash sales only. Because of the 4% service charge made by credit charge card plans on all charge sales, Arlow’s manager felt that this incentive plan would appeal to the sales clerks and be advantageous to the firm.The manager was right—to right in fact. Some of the sales clerks have become so enthusiastic about getting their 2% that they are being very pushy and insulting to customers who refuse to pay cash and try to use a bank charge card. Consequently, the manager has…A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000. If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand and the net present value is shown below: High Demand Low Demand ACTION Probability 75% Probability 25% Large Plant N$1 600 000 N$400 000 Small Plant N$1 000 000 N$1 000 000 Required: Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree.Consider the requirement that shopping malls need a license to remain open 24 hours, where these licenses are in fixed supply. These licenses are however freely tradable among actual and potential owners, and the industry is perfectly competitive. If the average 24-hour shopping mall’s annual revenue is $250,000, while the licenses may be leased at an annual fee of $100,000. Given this information, average variable cost for the industry would be $100,000. Is the preceding statement true or false?
- A farmer must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to his grapefruit crop in the event that the overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing. If the temperature drops too low he runs the risk of losing his entire crop, valued at $75,000. Based on the National Weather Service, the probability of such a temperature drop is 60%. He can insulate his crop by spraying water on all the trees, which will cost $20,000. This action might succeed in protecting the crop, with the following possible outcomes: Probability Damage 0.30 $0 0.15 $5,000 0.10 $10,000 0.15 $15,000 0.30 $20,000 Construct a decision tree to help the farmer make his decision. What should he do? Explain your answer. Find the highest cost of insulating the grapefruits for which the farmer prefers to insulate his crop. Suppose the farmer is uncertain about the reliability of the National Weather Service forecast. If he thinks the probability of…A farmer must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to his grapefruit crop in the event that the overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing. If the temperature drops too low he runs the risk of losing his entire crop, valued at $75,000. Based on the National Weather Service, the probability of such a temperature drop is 60%. He can insulate his crop by spraying water on all the trees, which will cost $20,000. This action might succeed in protecting the crop, with the following possible outcomes: Probability Damage 0.30 $0 0.15 $5,000 0.10 $10,000 0.15 $15,000 0.30 $20,000 a. Construct a decision tree to help the farmer make his decision. What should he do? b. Find the highest cost of insulating the grapefruits for which the farmer prefers to insulate his crop. c. Suppose the farmer is uncertain about the reliability of the National Weather Service forecast. If he thinks the probability of a freeze occurring…A farmer must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to his grapefruit crop in the event that the overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing. If the temperature drops too low he runs the risk of losing his entire crop, valued at $75,000. Based on the National Weather Service, the probability of such a temperature drop is 60%. He can insulate his crop by spraying water on all the trees, which will cost $20,000. This action might succeed in protecting the crop, with the following possible outcomes: Probability Damage 0.30 $0 0.15 $5,000 0.10 $10,000 0.15 $15,000 0.30 $20,000 Construct a decision tree to help the farmer make his decision. What should he do?
- Edwards Machine Tools needs to purchase a new machine. The basic model is slower but costs less, whereas the advanced model is faster but costs more. Profitability will depend on future demand. The following table presents an estimate of profits over the next three years. Demand Volume Decision Low Medium High Basic model $85,000 $115,000 $180,000 Advanced model $50,000 $115,000 $190,000 Fill in the table below for maximum and minimum profit payoffs under each model. Round your answers to the nearest dollar. Decision alternative Maximum Minimum Basic model $ $ Advanced model $ $ Calculate the amounts foregone by not adopting the optimal course of action for each possible demand level. Determine the maximum opportunity cost for each model. Fill in the table below. If your answer is zero, enter "0". Round your answers to the nearest dollar. Opportunity Loss Matrix Future events Decision alternative Low Medium High Maximum Basic model $ $ $ $ Advanced model $ $ $ $ Given the…Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes that the probability in any year of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks is 3%. Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately $480,000. He estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managing an additional supplier is $16,000 per year, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearly identical local suppliers are available. Find the EMV for alternatives using 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. EMV(1)=$54,40054,400 (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(2)= ? $ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(3)= ? $ (Enter your response…Habard’s, a chain of hardware stores, sells a variety of tools and home repair items.One of their best wrenches sells for $5.50. Habard’s will include a three-year freereplacement warranty for an additional $1.50. The wrench is expected to be subject to heavy use and, based on past experience, will fail randomly at a rate of oneevery eight years. Is it worth purchasing the warranty?