Whitebridge Hardware Store Whitebridge Hardware Store has a monthly demand for lawn fertilizer listed below. The gardening season starts in early spring when people want to fertilize their lawns. Period Demand Jan 59 Feb 68 March 91 April 145 May 182 June 212 July 193 Aug 174 Sept 144 Oct 89 Nov 74 Dec 55 Answer Questions 1 – 5 below. [Be sure to watch the video on how to complete your forecasting problem, in the content module.] Everything must be typed including the graph. You need to complete this assignment in Excel. For the narrative answers, you can include them in Excel in one or more of the empty cells. If you know how to add an extra worksheet, you can add your answers on a new worksheet. Or you can type them in a Word document Please include your name somewhere. In the Assignments area, a template is provided for you and you are welcome to use it. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three and five month moving average in a table. In this table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week. Plot these forecasts AND the original data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines. Describe the results of your two forecast lines. Answer both parts of this question: How do the forecast lines compare to demand? If you haven’t plotted the original demand data, then you can’t address this question. Go back and make sure the demand data is its own line on your graph. Then you see compare the forecast lines to the demand line. Then describe the results of your two forecast lines in terms of noticing any patterns in the forecast lines such as randomness, cyclicality, seasonality, or anything else you observe. Don’t just say that one line is higher or lower than the other. Choosing between the three period and the five period forecasts, which one would you use as a purchasing manager of the Whitebridge Hardware Store for the fertilizer it sells? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business, given its demand pattern. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand when it grows and when it drops? Which method better supports these things? Incorporating these things into your answer can earn you more points than saying that the shorter or longer one moves more slowly or quickly with demand.

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Whitebridge Hardware Store

Whitebridge Hardware Store has a monthly demand for lawn fertilizer listed below. The gardening season starts in early spring when people want to fertilize their lawns.

Period

Demand

Jan

59

Feb

68

March

91

April

145

May

182

June

212

July

193

Aug

174

Sept

144

Oct

89

Nov

74

Dec

55

Answer Questions 1 – 5 below. [Be sure to watch the video on how to complete your forecasting problem, in the content module.] Everything must be typed including the graph.

You need to complete this assignment in Excel. For the narrative answers, you can include them in Excel in one or more of the empty cells. If you know how to add an extra worksheet, you can add your answers on a new worksheet. Or you can type them in a Word document Please include your name somewhere.

In the Assignments area, a template is provided for you and you are welcome to use it.

  1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three and five month moving average in a table.

  2. In this table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week.

  1. Plot these forecasts AND the original data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines.

  2. Describe the results of your two forecast lines. Answer both parts of this question:

    1. How do the forecast lines compare to demand? If you haven’t plotted the original demand data, then you can’t address this question. Go back and make sure the demand data is its own line on your graph. Then you see compare the forecast lines to the demand line.

    2. Then describe the results of your two forecast lines in terms of noticing any patterns in the forecast lines such as randomness, cyclicality, seasonality, or anything else you observe. Don’t just say that one line is higher or lower than the other.

  3. Choosing between the three period and the five period forecasts, which one would you use as a purchasing manager of the Whitebridge Hardware Store for the fertilizer it sells? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business, given its demand pattern. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand when it grows and when it drops? Which method better supports these things?

    Incorporating these things into your answer can earn you more points than saying that the shorter or longer one moves more slowly or quickly with demand.

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  1. Choosing between the three period and the five period forecasts, which one would you use as a purchasing manager of the Whitebridge Hardware Store for the fertilizer it sells? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business, given its demand pattern. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand when it grows and when it drops? Which method better supports these things?

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