Consider the following time series data. week        1       2       3       4       5       6 Value       18     13     16     11     17     14 Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal place

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Publisher:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson
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Consider the following time series data.

week        1       2       3       4       5       6

Value       18     13     16     11     17     14

  1. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

 


Week

Time Series
Value


Forecast

1

18

 

2

13

 

3

16

 

4

11

 

5

17

 

6

14

 


MSE: 

The forecast for week 7: 

  1. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.


Week

Time Series
Value


Forecast

1

18

 

2

13

 

3

16

 

4

11

 

5

17

 

6

14

 


MSE: 

The forecast for week 7: 

  1. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?





    The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

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