a. Consider the following time series data: 1 | 2 18 5 | 6 | 14 Week 3 4 Value 13 16 11 17 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy: Mean absolute error Mean squared error Mean absolute percentage error What is the forecast for week 7?

Glencoe Algebra 1, Student Edition, 9780079039897, 0079039898, 2018
18th Edition
ISBN:9780079039897
Author:Carter
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Chapter10: Statistics
Section10.5: Comparing Sets Of Data
Problem 11PPS
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a. Consider the following time series data:
Week
1 | 2
3
4
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week,
compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
What is the forecast for week 7?
b. Refer to the time series data in Problem a. Using the average of all the historical data
as a forecast for the next period, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy:
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
What is the forecast for week 7?
c. Problems a and b used different forecasting methods. Which method appears to
provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data? Explain.
Transcribed Image Text:a. Consider the following time series data: Week 1 | 2 3 4 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy: Mean absolute error Mean squared error Mean absolute percentage error What is the forecast for week 7? b. Refer to the time series data in Problem a. Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy: Mean absolute error Mean squared error Mean absolute percentage error What is the forecast for week 7? c. Problems a and b used different forecasting methods. Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data? Explain.
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