Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln r and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 With probability p= the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1-p= 2 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie's expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie's expected utility is she purchases the project?]
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- Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.Find the Pratt - Arrow risk - aversion function for a utility function U(W) = log(0.5-W + 500), where W is the amount of wealth in €. Suppose that an investor's wealth is subject to outcomes -800 €, 500 €, 500 € and 1, 000 € which affect the initial amount of 2,500 € with probabilities of their occurrence 40%, 15%, 15% and 30%, respectively. a) Using the Taylor approximation to certainty equivalent, calculate an approximate expected utility value. b) Calculate the certain equivalent of the investor's uncertain wealth. Interpret.
- A consumer has the following utility function u(x)= root x where x is the consumer’s total wealth. The consumer's total wealth is the consumer’s cash plus the value of her house. The consumer has $400 in cash (risk free) plus a house. The house is currently worth $756. With probability 70% nothing happens, and the value of the house stays the same. With probability 30%, high winds will cause $580 in damages to the house (in which case, the house value becomes $176). An insurance company offers to fully insure the house at an insurance premium p. What is the maximum insurance premium that the consumer is willing to pay? The consumer is willing to pay at most p=. The fair insurance premium is . In this example, the associated risk premium is .Solve the following problem using an excel spreadsheet. A tobacco company isinterested in hiring a salesperson to promote smoking cigarettes in nightclubs. The position pays a flat salary of $50,000, regardless of sales levels. The firm has two applicants, Predictable Patty and Risky Ricky. Predictable Patty can produce with 100% certainty $100,000 a year in sales. Risky Ricky, on the other hand, can produce $300,000 with probability of 50%. But if he turns out to spend his time drinking and dancing in the nightclubs instead of making sales, he could actually cost the firm -$100,000 per year.a) During their first year on the job, what are the expected sales of Patty and Ricky? What are the firm’s expected profits on each worker?b) Now assume both workers are currently 25, and they will work until the retirement age of 65. The firm has the option to fire its new employee after one year based on sales, but can only hire one employee. Assume that it takes only one year to discover whether…Let U(x)= x^(beta/2) denote an agent's utility function, where Beta > 0 is a parameter that defines the agent's attitude towards risk. Consider a gamble that pays a prize X = 10 with probability 0.2, a price X = 50 with probability 0.4 and a price X = 100 with probability 0.4. Compute the agentís expected utility for such gamble and find the value of Beta such that the agentis risk neutral? Suppose B= 1, what is the certainty equivalent of the gamble described above? What is the Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion?
- Find the values of Absolute Risk Aversion (ARA) and Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) for all the cases below. . U(C) = C0.5. . U(C) = C2. . U(C) = 5×C. . U(C) = -C-2. . U(C) = -C-7. . U(C) = -e-7C. . U(C) = [1/(1-a)]×C1-a , where a is a constant.You need to hire some new employees to staff your startup venture. You know that potential employees are distributed throughout the population as follows, but you can't distinguish among them: Employee Value Probability $65,000 0.1 $78,000 0.1 $91,000 0.1 $104,000 0.1 $117,000 0.1 $130,000 0.1 $143,000 0.1 $156,000 0.1 $169,000 0.1 $182,000 0.1 The expected value of hiring one employee is. Suppose you set the salary of the position equal to the expected value of an employee. Assume that employees will not work for a salary below their employee value. The expected value of an employee who would apply for the position, at this salary, is. Given this adverse selection, your most reasonable salary offer (that ensures you do not lose money) is (A. 65,000, B. 91,000, C. 78,000, D. 104,000)Dr. Gambles has a utility function given as U(w)=In(w). Due to the pandemic affecting his consulting business, Dr Gambles faces the prospect of having his wealth reduced to £2 or £75,000 or £100,000 with probabilities of 0.15, 0.25, and 0.60, respectively. Suppose insurance is available that will protect his wealth from this risk. How much would he be willing to pay for such insurance?
- A risk-averse expected-utility maximizer has initial wealth w0 and utility function u. She facesa risk of a financial loss of L dollars, which occurs with probability π. An insurance companyoffers to sell a policy that costs p dollars per dollar of coverage (per dollar paid back in theevent of a loss). Denote by x the number of dollars of coverage.(a) Give the formula for her expected utility V (x) as a function of x.(b) Suppose that u(z) = −e−zλ, π = 1/4, L = 100 and p = 1/3. Write V (x)using these values. There should be three variables, x, λ and w. Find the optimal value of x,as a function of λ and w, by solving the first-order condition (set the derivative of the expectedutility with respect to x equal to zero). (The second-order condition for this problem holds butyou do not need to check it.) Does the optimal amount of coverage increase or decrease in λ,where λ > 0?(c) Repeat exercise (b), but with p = 1/6.(d) You should find that for either (b) or (c), the optimal coverage…Gary likes to gamble. Donna offers to bet him $31 on the outcome of a boat race. If Gary’s boat wins, Donna would give him $31. If Gary’s boat does not win, Gary would give her $31. Gary’s utility function is p1x^21+p2x^22, where p1 and p2 are the probabilities of events 1 and 2 and where x1 and x2 are his wealth if events 1 and 2 occur respectively. Gary’s total wealth is currently only $80 and he believes that the probability that he will win the race is 0.3. Which of the following is correct? (please submit the number corresponding to the correct answer). Taking the bet would reduce his expected utility. Taking the bet would leave his expected utility unchanged. Taking the bet would increase his expected utility. There is not enough information to determine whether taking the bet would increase or decrease his expected utility. The information given in the problem is self-contradictory.Leora has a monthly income of $20,736. Unfortunately, there is a chance that she will have an accident that will result in costs of $10,736. Thus leaving her an income of only $10,000. The probability of an accident is 0.5. Finally assume that her preferences over income can be represented by the utility function u(x) = 2ln(x).a) What is the expected income? What is Leora’s expected utility (you may leave in log form)? b) What is the certainty equivalent to her situation? What is the risk premium associated with her situation?c) What is the maximum that Leora would be willing to pay for a full insurance policy?d) Illustrate her expected utility, expected wealth, certainty equivalent, the risk premium and her willingness to pay for a full insurance policy in a diagram.