Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (w = 0.9 and w = 0.3). (Note: The exponential smoothing forecasts may be begun by assuming Yt + 1 = Yt.) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Actual Demand 1,400 1,390 1,425 1,430 1,480 1,500 1,490 1,525 1,530 1,580 * Moving Average (5-year) (3-year) Exponential Smoothing (W = 0.9) (W = 0.3)

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter1: Functions
Section1.EA: Extended Application Using Extrapolation To Predict Life Expectancy
Problem 2EA
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Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (w = 0.9 and
w = 0.3). (Note: The exponential smoothing forecasts may be begun by assuming Ŷt + 1 = Yt.)
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Actual Demand
1,400
1,390
1,425
1,430
1,480
1,500
1,490
1,525
1,530
1,580
*
Moving Average
(5-year)
(3-year)
Exponential Smoothing
(W = 0.3)
(W = 0.9)
Transcribed Image Text:Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (w = 0.9 and w = 0.3). (Note: The exponential smoothing forecasts may be begun by assuming Ŷt + 1 = Yt.) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Actual Demand 1,400 1,390 1,425 1,430 1,480 1,500 1,490 1,525 1,530 1,580 * Moving Average (5-year) (3-year) Exponential Smoothing (W = 0.3) (W = 0.9)
Year (5-year)
2005
5,625
2006
2,025
2007
3,600
2,025
5,625
2008
2009
RMSE
Square Error
Moving Average
(3-year)
3,025
400
1,225
625
4,225
O Exponential smoothing (w = 0.3)
Exponential smoothing (w = 0.9)
Exponential Smoothing
(W = 0.9)
(W = 0.3)
625
4,489
64
1,369
1,156
3,721
64
2,304
7,056
Based on the RMSE criterion, which of the forecasting methods is the most accurate?
O Five-year moving average
O Three-year moving average
2,601
Transcribed Image Text:Year (5-year) 2005 5,625 2006 2,025 2007 3,600 2,025 5,625 2008 2009 RMSE Square Error Moving Average (3-year) 3,025 400 1,225 625 4,225 O Exponential smoothing (w = 0.3) Exponential smoothing (w = 0.9) Exponential Smoothing (W = 0.9) (W = 0.3) 625 4,489 64 1,369 1,156 3,721 64 2,304 7,056 Based on the RMSE criterion, which of the forecasting methods is the most accurate? O Five-year moving average O Three-year moving average 2,601
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