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How do their perceptions of probability (in their 'weighting function') in prospect theory cause biases in their decision making?
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- Suppose Alex’s utility function is u ($x) = √x. Assume her initial wealth is 0. Is it possible that Alex’s expected utility from the prospect equals $5, why? What is the possible range of Alex’s expected utility?One of the predictions of prospect theory is that we tend to be overly concerned with relatively small risk. Can you think of any example (besides those given in the lecture) that either speaks to this or is an exception?Find the Pratt - Arrow risk - aversion function for a utility function U(W) = log(0.5-W + 500), where W is the amount of wealth in €. Suppose that an investor's wealth is subject to outcomes -800 €, 500 €, 500 € and 1, 000 € which affect the initial amount of 2,500 € with probabilities of their occurrence 40%, 15%, 15% and 30%, respectively. a) Using the Taylor approximation to certainty equivalent, calculate an approximate expected utility value. b) Calculate the certain equivalent of the investor's uncertain wealth. Interpret.
- what distinguishes prospect theory from subjective expected utility (SEU) theory?How might the confirmation tendency affect Nathan's decision and what could he do to mitigate the possible effects of this tendency in order to improve his professional judgment?Consider the following claim: “If a decision maker prefers one given lottery that yields $x with probability 1 over another given lottery whose expected return is $x, then we can fully characterize the agent's risk attitude. That is, this information comparing two given lotteries is enough to determine if the decision maker is risk averse, risk loving or risk neutral.” If this claim is TRUE, then provide a proof. If it is FALSE, then prove your argument by providing an explanation.
- Clancy has difficulty finding parking in his neighborhood and, thus, is considering the gamble of illegally parking on the sidewalk because of the opportunity cost of the time he spends searching for parking. On any given day, Clancy knows he may or may not get a ticket, but he also expects that if he were to do it every day, the average amount he would pay for parking tickets should converge to the expected value. If the expected value is positive, then in the long run, it will be optimal for him to park on the sidewalk and occasionally pay the tickets in exchange for the benefits of not searching for parking. Suppose that Clancy knows that the fine for parking this way is $100, and his opportunity cost (OC) of searching for parking is $20 per day. That is, if he parks on the sidewalk and does not get a ticket, he gets a positive payoff worth $20; if he does get a ticket, he ends up with a payoff ofSuppose Xavier has tickets to the Super Bowl, but is terribly ill with a noncontagious infection. How would a decision maker perform his economic calculation on whether to attend the game, based on the traditional model of risk behavior?Consider two investors A and B.If the Certainty-Equivalent end-of-period wealth of A is less than the Certainty-Equivalent end-of-period wealth of B for the same portfolio choice,then A. Risk aversion of A > Risk aversion of B B. Risk aversion of A = Risk aversion of B C. Risk aversion of A< Risk aversion of B D. Not enough Information Justify your choice in a sentence or two：
- The following payoff table provides profits based on various posible decision alternativesand various levels of demand at Kmart Print Shop. Alternatives Low High Alternative 1 10,000 30,000 Alternative 2 5,000 40,000 Alternative 3 -2,000 50,000 The probability of low demand is 0.4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0.6.What is the highest possible expected monetary value?If a risk‐neutral individual owns a home worth $200,000 and there is a three percent chance the home will be destroyed by fire in the next year, then we know that:a) He is willing to pay much more than $6,000 for full cover.b) He is willing to pay much less than $6,000 for full cover.c) He is willing to pay at most $6,000 for full cover.d) None of the above are correct.e) All of the above are correct.Prospect Z = ($7 , 0.25 ; $19 , 0.50 ; $26 , 0.25) If Anna's utility of wealth function is given by u(x)=x, what is the value of CE(Z) for Anna? (In other words, what is Anna's certainty equivalent for prospect Z?) (Note: The answer may not be a whole number; please round to the nearest hundredth) (Note: The numbers may change between questions, so read carefully)