Answered: Inaccurate forecasts are an inventory…

Contemporary Marketing

18th Edition

ISBN:9780357033777

Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Chapter14: Pricing Strategies

Section14.2: Forecasting Demand

Problem 1LO

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Explain what ex-post and ex-ante forecasts are, and how one can evaluate the accuracy of forecast of a model to be used for short term trading purposes.
Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast?
No singal forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions: True or false?
Explain the word "false" for a successful forecast?
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 9 13 8 11 14 9 13 7 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 5.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 5.0 enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here
Choosing between the three period and the five period forecasts, which one would you use as a purchasing manager of the Whitebridge Hardware Store for the fertilizer it sells? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business, given its demand pattern. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand when it grows and when it drops? Which method better supports these things?
What is Use a naive method to make a forecast?
Using data in the below in class example, forecast GA operations using effective buying income (X2) as the independent variable. Develop forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Show your answers in a table. Questions: How does this forecast differ from that using employment as the independent variable? What is the coefficient of determination for this scenario and what does it imply? Service Area Year GA Operations (Y) Employment (X1) Effective Buying Income (X2) 2000 22,513 45,714 $8,433 2001 23,768 48,601 $9,207 2002 21,838 51,314 $10,106 2003 25,904 54,107 $10,457 2004 26,208 57,848 $11,055 2005 26,946 56,022 $11,016 2006 27,977 56,317 $11,399 2007 27,294 58,757 $11,883 2008 28,647 61,556 $12,119 2009 29,270 62,341 $12,213 Forecast 2010 66,533 $13,081 2015 73,491 $14,609 2020 82,189 $16,525 2030 99,584…
Given the following demand data, Period Demand 1 47 2 44 3 47 4 44 5 48 a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the next most recent, 0.2 for the next, and 0.1 for the next. (Round all your answers to two decimal points.) b. If the actual demand for period 6 is 48, forecast demand for period 7 using the same weights as in part a. Forecast Period 7 ______

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Inaccurate forecasts are an inventory risk. Do you agree with this statement? Justify your stance by discussing at least three key points.