Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.4%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 11%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 0.18%. a) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is 0.01731 (round your response to five decimal places) b) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2 is 0.0121 (round your response to five decimal places).

Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.4%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 11%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 0.18%. a) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is 0.01731 (round your response to five decimal places) b) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2 is 0.0121 (round your response to five decimal places).

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “superevent” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a“super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a "superevent" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 0.2%.
Machado Construction is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 8%, and the probability of a "super-even" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 2.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 18%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.2%. (a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 1? (b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2? (c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
Risk manager Camila De Leon of Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for the firm's supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.3%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 14%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be .24%. a) The probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is b)Similarly, determine the probability of a total disruption for option 2. c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
Risk manager Camila De Leon of Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for the firm's supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 5.8%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.3%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a "unique-event" risk of 14%, and the probability of a "super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be .24%.
Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is esti-mated to be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
A businessman must decide whether to open a new mini grocery branch or simply extend the number of hours of its operation on its existing branch with a payoff of Php150,000. According to his friend, demand at a new location can either be low or high, which he probabilities are estimated to be 35% and 65%, respectively. If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be high, the businessman may choose to operate 24hrs (payoff is Php350, 000) or to operate 12hrs (payoff is Php200,000). If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be low, there is no need to operate on a 24-hr basis but instead, they will just stick to 12-hr operation with payoff of Php100,000 or enhance marketing strategy through advertising. Projected response to advertising may either be favorable or not favorable, with estimated probabilities of 40% and 60%, respectively. If demand is favorable, the payoff grows to Php310,000 and if the response in unfavorable, the payoff is Php120,000. The cost of advertising…
Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each hasa " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%.a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
Jeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer, and he is currently evaluating a script by a new screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston. Jeffrey knows that the probability of a film by a new director being a success is about .10 and that the probability it will flop is .90. The studio accounting department estimates that if this film is a hit, it will make $25 million in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it will lose $8 million. Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic Dick Roper to read the script and assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper wants a fee of $1 million. Determine whether Roper should be hired, the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired, and the expected value.
A soft drink company is considering launching a ‘seasonal soda’ that will be sold for a limited duration. They are considering selling the new soda X-Mist during the upcoming summer season. The company believes, based on its limited market analysis, that there is a 0.75 probability that X-Mist will have a successful summer season and have estimated that they will receive a profit of $4 million if it is successful. If X-Mist is not successful over the summer season, the company will incur a loss of $900,000. The firm Market-Strategies can do an extensive market analysis for a fee of $35,000. Market-Strategies has demonstrated that it is 90 percent reliable in its market analysis for soft drinks, i.e., a soda that will be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Successful’ by Market-Strategies with a probability 0.9 and a soda that will not be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Fail’ by Market-Strategies with a probability of 0.9. The soft drink company must decide…
Kryoneriperfume company is considering the followingtwo alternatives for the supply of vetiver oil (an essential oil used inhigh-end perfumes). Alternative one is to use two suppliers locatedin Haiti where half of the world’s vetiver oil comes from. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 15%, due to Haiti’s vulnerability to earthquakes (remember theearthquake in 2010). Alternative 2 is to use two suppliers locatedin Japan (another main producer of vetiver oil) where each has a“unique-event” risk of 1%, and the probability of a “super-event”that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 2%, dueto Japan’s exceptionally great infrastructure developed after 1995Kobe earthquake. Estimate which alternative seems best?
A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large…