Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $203,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $40,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will either be modest or sizable, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If the response is modest, the payoff is $25,000. If it is sizable, the payoff is $210,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000. Cheryl should build the _ facility. If demand proves to be low, then _ to stimulate demand. What is the value of this expected payoff? The expected payoff is
Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $203,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $40,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will either be modest or sizable, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If the response is modest, the payoff is $25,000. If it is sizable, the payoff is $210,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000. Cheryl should build the _ facility. If demand proves to be low, then _ to stimulate demand. What is the value of this expected payoff? The expected payoff is
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in
Problem 9P
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Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7,
respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $203,000.
respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $203,000.
If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $40,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will either be modest or sizable, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If the response is modest, the payoff is $25,000.
If it is sizable, the payoff is $210,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000.
If it is sizable, the payoff is $210,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000.
Cheryl should build the _ facility. If demand proves to be low, then _ to stimulate demand.
What is the value of this expected payoff?
The expected payoff is
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