Maximus Steel plans to introduce one of three new products code-named: Wren, Hawk, and Nightingale. The marketing department indicated that the success of any product depends on the market conditions (Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable). The profit the company will earn also depends on the market conditions.  The table below shows the probability estimated for each market condition and the profits Maximus Steel will realize within those conditions: Product Code Market Conditions Favorable P = 0.2 Neutral P = 0.7 Unfavorable P = 0.1 Wren $120,000 $70,000 ($30,000) Hawk $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Nightingale $35,000 $30,000 $30,000   Maximus Steel is considering hiring a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given neutral conditions; and a .10 probability of a positive report, given unfavorable conditions. There is a .90 probability of a negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a .70 probability, given neutral conditions; and a .40 probability, given favorable conditions. 1) Develop the complete decision tree for Maximus Steel. 2) Recommend the best strategy for the company. Indicate the expected value of the strategy, and the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis
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Maximus Steel plans to introduce one of three new products code-named: Wren, Hawk, and Nightingale. The marketing department indicated that the success of any product depends on the market conditions (Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable). The profit the company will earn also depends on the market conditions. 

The table below shows the probability estimated for each market condition and the profits Maximus Steel will realize within those conditions:

Product Code

Market Conditions

Favorable

P = 0.2

Neutral

P = 0.7

Unfavorable

P = 0.1

Wren

$120,000

$70,000

($30,000)

Hawk

$60,000

$40,000

$20,000

Nightingale

$35,000

$30,000

$30,000

 

Maximus Steel is considering hiring a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions.

There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given neutral conditions; and a .10 probability of a positive report, given unfavorable conditions.

There is a .90 probability of a negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a .70 probability, given neutral conditions; and a .40 probability, given favorable conditions.

1) Develop the complete decision tree for Maximus Steel.

2) Recommend the best strategy for the company. Indicate the expected value of the strategy, and the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results.

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