Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand   Demand is Low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, OK 85 110 150 Sweetwater, TX 90 100 120 Lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 How much is a perfect forecast of the demand worth?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
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Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand

 

Demand is Low

Demand is medium

Demand is High

Ardmore, OK

85

110

150

Sweetwater, TX

90

100

120

Lake Charles, LA

110

120

130

How much is a perfect forecast of the demand worth?

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