Two vaccination schemes are recently adopted in Lebanon, Pfizer and Astrazenica The profit for each one of these is dependent on the site (clinic or hospital) performing the vaccination process. This is shown in the following payoff table. Ministry of health considering the maximum profit to be able to cover the cost of staff where vaccination process can either be in a small clinics, or medium size hospitals or in main hospitals Alternative capacity for Pfizer Astrazenica new store Clinics 10 5 Small Hospitals 8. Main Hospitals 6. 3 (a) ssume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: Maximin, Maximax, Laplace, In your own opinion, which alternative likely to be excluded and why? (b) The ministry of health would like to check the possible loss. Find out the minimax regret table and identify the recommended alternative. (c) Assuming the probability of getting Pfizer is 0.6 and getting Astrazenica is 40%, determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table. (d) Compute the EVPI again using Risk method Compute the expected value of each alternative in the payoff table, and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach (e) Using the probabilities of 60 for Pfizer and 40 for Astra, Construct a decision tree for the problem showing expected values. (f) Using graphical sensitivity analysis, determine the probability for Astrazenica for which each alternative would be optimal.
Two vaccination schemes are recently adopted in Lebanon, Pfizer and Astrazenica The profit for each one of these is dependent on the site (clinic or hospital) performing the vaccination process. This is shown in the following payoff table. Ministry of health considering the maximum profit to be able to cover the cost of staff where vaccination process can either be in a small clinics, or medium size hospitals or in main hospitals Alternative capacity for Pfizer Astrazenica new store Clinics 10 5 Small Hospitals 8. Main Hospitals 6. 3 (a) ssume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: Maximin, Maximax, Laplace, In your own opinion, which alternative likely to be excluded and why? (b) The ministry of health would like to check the possible loss. Find out the minimax regret table and identify the recommended alternative. (c) Assuming the probability of getting Pfizer is 0.6 and getting Astrazenica is 40%, determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table. (d) Compute the EVPI again using Risk method Compute the expected value of each alternative in the payoff table, and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach (e) Using the probabilities of 60 for Pfizer and 40 for Astra, Construct a decision tree for the problem showing expected values. (f) Using graphical sensitivity analysis, determine the probability for Astrazenica for which each alternative would be optimal.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 46P
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Transcribed Image Text:Two vaccination schemes are recently adopted in Lebanon, Pfizer and Astrazenica The profit for
each one of these is dependent on the site (clinic or hospital) performing the vaccination process.
This is shown in the following payoff table.
Ministry of health considering the maximum profit to be able to cover the cost of staff where
vaccination process can either be in a small clinics, or medium size hospitals or in main hospitals
Alternative
capacity for
new store
Pfizer
Astrazenica
Clinics
10
Small Hospitals
Main Hospitals
7
6.
3
(a) Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under
each of these decision criteria: Maximin, Maximax, Laplace, In your own opinion, which
alternative likely to be excluded and why?
(b) The ministry of health would like to check the possible loss. Find out the minimax regret table
and identify the recommended alternative.
(c) Assuming the probability of getting Pfizer is 0.6 and getting Astrazenica is 40%, determine the
expected value of perfect information using the regret table.
(d) Compute the EVPI again using Risk method Compute the expected value of each alternative in
the payoff table, and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value
approach
(e) Using the probabilities of 60 for Pfizer and .40 for Astra, Construct a decision tree for the
problem showing expected values.
(f) Using graphical sensitivity analysis, determine the probability for Astrazenica for which each
alternative would be optimal.
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