only, explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.8 and initial state o
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The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AUS dollars) have been
recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 9.5, 8, 9, 9. Examining sales
forecast accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting
method would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple
exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.8 and initial state of 8.5)?
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- What does the y -intercept on the graph of a logistic equation correspond to for a population modeled by that equation?Compute the forecasted values for Yt for July and August in 2020 by using the modelsstated in (c) and (d)a. In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .30. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of August b.In the Petroco Service Station problem, for the exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .30, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM c. In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .50. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of January would be d.In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .50. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of August
- Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?Recent publications have addressed the growing concern in the scientific community around the increased prevalence of CAT scans in children between the ages of 7-18 and the growing rate of childhood cancers. Suppose the researcher plans to gather a SRS from a group of children in this age range who have received one or more CAT scans, and a SRS from a group of children who have never received a CAT scan and compare the number of cases of childhood cancers that develop over a prolonged period of time. Assume the following table summarizes the descriptive statistics for his samples. Population Average cases of childhood cancers Standard deviaton Sample size >CAT scan 24.6 2.4 1,894 No CAT scans 11.4 1.9 2,745 A) Carry out the appropriate statistical test to answer the researcher’s hypothesis regarding the difference in average cases of childhood cancers in children aged 7-18 receiving one or more CAT scans versus those that have never received a CAT scan. Use an alpha level…Consider the following (actual real-world) data of total cumulative coronavirus cases diagnosed in the United States by the following days: Sunday, 3/15 -- 3613 Monday, 3/16 -- 4596 Tuesday, 3/17 -- 6344 Wednesday, 3/18 -- 9197 Thursday, 3/19 -- 13779 Friday, 3/20 -- 19367 Saturday, 3/21 - 24192 Sunday, 3/22 - 33592(a) Does this data suggest exponential growth in the total number of cases diagnosed as function of the number of days that have elapsed? Explain how you would use the data to support your conclusion. (b) Let P(t) denote the total number of people in the US who have tested positive for the coronavirus on or before t days after March 15. Let P0=3613, the total number of people in the US who had tested positive for coronavirus by March 15. Then if we use an exponential growth model, P(t)=P0ekt, how would you use the above data to estimate the value of k? (c) Based on this data alone , how many total coronavirus cases would you expect to be diagnosed in the United States by…
- What is the MA3 forecast for Year 4, Q1? What is the weighted MA3 forecast for Year 4, Q1 with weights of 0.5, 0.33, and 0.17? What is the Exponential Smoothing forecast for Year 4, Q1 using alpha = 0.3? What is the Adjusted Exponential Smoothing forecast for Year 4, Q1 using alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.5?Following table presents the quarterly market share of Tasty Food Company; Quarter Firm’s Actual Market Share 1 20 2 22 3 23 4 24 5 18 6 23 7 19 8 17 9 22 10 23 11 18 12 23 13 ? Forecast the company’s market share for the 13th quarter by exponential smoothing with w=0.3. Calculate the Root-Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the exponential forecast using w=0.3. If the RMSE for the exponential forecast using w=0.5 is 2.91 then compare which forecasts is better and why?What would we call March 2020’s data point? What happened at that point in time to cause this?
- Which of the time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?Consider the following data: Monthly Profit of a Gym Month Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Profit ($) 6,350 6,103 5,424 5,237 5,380 6,158 7,819 6,351 6,057 Step 4 of 5 : What are the MAD, MSE and MAPE scores for the exponentially smoothed forecast? Round any intermediate calculations, if necessary, to no less than six decimal places, and round your final answer to one decimal place.Out of the following data sets, which is best described as having a positive exponential relationship? x 0 1 2 3 4 5 y 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 2 2.5 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 y 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.9 4.9 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 y 3.4 4.5 6.2 8.5 9.1 8.6 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 y 7 4.3 6.2 7.4 8.8 10.9
