Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid passing a day uneventfully is q< 1. Given that a day is not uneventful, there is a probability r that the aphid will have one offspring, a probability s that it will have two offspring, and a probability t that it will die of exhaustion, where r+s+t=1. Offspring are ready to reproduce the next day. The fates of different aphids are independent, as are the events of different days. The laboratory starts out with one aphid. Let X, be the number of aphids at the end of n days. Show how to obtain an expression for the PGF ,(z) of X„. What is the expected value of X,? Show that the probability of extinction does not depend on q and that if 2r + 3s

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Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid
passing a day uneventfully is q< 1. Given that a day is not uneventful, there is a probability
r that the aphid will have one offspring, a probability s that it will have two offspring,
and a probability t that it will die of exhaustion, where r+s+t=1. Offspring are ready
to reproduce the next day. The fates of different aphids are independent, as are the events
of different days. The laboratory starts out with one aphid.
Let X, be the number of aphids at the end of n days. Show how to obtain an expression
for the PGF d(z) of X„. What is the expected value of X,?
Show that the probability of extinction does not depend on q and that if 2r + 3s <1,
the aphids will certainly die out. Find the probability of extinction if r=1/5, s=2/5 and
1= 2/5.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid passing a day uneventfully is q< 1. Given that a day is not uneventful, there is a probability r that the aphid will have one offspring, a probability s that it will have two offspring, and a probability t that it will die of exhaustion, where r+s+t=1. Offspring are ready to reproduce the next day. The fates of different aphids are independent, as are the events of different days. The laboratory starts out with one aphid. Let X, be the number of aphids at the end of n days. Show how to obtain an expression for the PGF d(z) of X„. What is the expected value of X,? Show that the probability of extinction does not depend on q and that if 2r + 3s <1, the aphids will certainly die out. Find the probability of extinction if r=1/5, s=2/5 and 1= 2/5.
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