Q2. What is the optimal solution and what is the value of the objective function? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results. Q3. What are the objective coefficient ranges for the four stocks? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret these ranges. Q4. Suppose the investor decides that the annual rate of return no longer has to be at least 9% and agrees to at minimum level of 8%. What does the shadow price associated with this constraint indicate about a possible change in total risk that could occur from this lower rate of return? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results. An investment company manages portfolios of stocks, bonds, and other investment alternatives.One of the company's clients would like to invest $200,000 in stocks. The client is interested infour specific stocks - A, B, C, and/or D. The company gathered the following relevant financialdata for the four stocks:Stock CStock AStock BStock DPrice per shareS100$50S80$40Annual rate of0.120.080.060.10returnRisk measure0.100.070.050.08per dollarinvestedBased on the above data, the investor has stipulated the following investment guidelines:1. The entire amount of $200,000 must be invested.2. The annual rate of return must be at least 9% of the invested capital of $200,000.3. Not every stock has to be purchased, however, if selected, no one stock can account for morethan 50% of the total dollar investment.4. The total investment in stocks A and B combined must be equal to or greater than the totalinvestment in stocks C and D combined.

Q2.To find the objective function value Let us define the objective function and decision variables…

Q2. What is the optimal solution and what is the value of the objective function? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results. Q3. What are the objective coefficient ranges for the four stocks? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret these ranges. Q4. Suppose the investor decides that the annual rate of return no longer has to be at least 9% and agrees to at minimum level of 8%. What does the shadow price associated with this constraint indicate about a possible change in total risk that could occur from this lower rate of return? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results.

Q2. What is the optimal solution and what is the value of the objective function? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results. Q3. What are the objective coefficient ranges for the four stocks? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret these ranges. Q4. Suppose the investor decides that the annual rate of return no longer has to be at least 9% and agrees to at minimum level of 8%. What does the shadow price associated with this constraint indicate about a possible change in total risk that could occur from this lower rate of return? Show the relevant portion of the Solver’s output. Fully interpret the results.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models

Section7.7: Portfolio Optimization Models

Problem 38P: The stocks in Example 7.9 are all positively correlated. What happens when they are negatively...

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Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?
An automobile manufacturer is considering whether to introduce a new model called the Racer. The profitability of the Racer depends on the following factors: The fixed cost of developing the Racer is triangularly distributed with parameters 3, 4, and 5, all in billions. Year 1 sales are normally distributed with mean 200,000 and standard deviation 50,000. Year 2 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 1 sales and standard deviation 50,000. Year 3 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 2 sales and standard deviation 50,000. The selling price in year 1 is 25,000. The year 2 selling price will be 1.05[year 1 price + 50 (% diff1)] where % diff1 is the number of percentage points by which actual year 1 sales differ from expected year 1 sales. The 1.05 factor accounts for inflation. For example, if the year 1 sales figure is 180,000, which is 10 percentage points below the expected year 1 sales, then the year 2 price will be 1.05[25,000 + 50( 10)] = 25,725. Similarly, the year 3 price will be 1.05[year 2 price + 50(% diff2)] where % diff2 is the percentage by which actual year 2 sales differ from expected year 2 sales. The variable cost in year 1 is triangularly distributed with parameters 10,000, 12,000, and 15,000, and it is assumed to increase by 5% each year. Your goal is to estimate the NPV of the new car during its first three years. Assume that the company is able to produce exactly as many cars as it can sell. Also, assume that cash flows are discounted at 10%. Simulate 1000 trials to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV for the first three years of sales. Also, determine an interval such that you are 95% certain that the NPV of the Racer during its first three years of operation will be within this interval.
If a monopolist produces q units, she can charge 400 4q dollars per unit. The variable cost is 60 per unit. a. How can the monopolist maximize her profit? b. If the monopolist must pay a sales tax of 5% of the selling price per unit, will she increase or decrease production (relative to the situation with no sales tax)? c. Continuing part b, use SolverTable to see how a change in the sales tax affects the optimal solution. Let the sales tax vary from 0% to 8% in increments of 0.5%.
When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a decision variable, such as the order quantity in the Walton model, explain how this provides a fair comparison across the different values tested.
Based on Grossman and Hart (1983). A salesperson for Fuller Brush has three options: (1) quit, (2) put forth a low level of effort, or (3) put forth a high level of effort. Suppose for simplicity that each salesperson will sell 0, 5000, or 50,000 worth of brushes. The probability of each sales amount depends on the effort level as described in the file P07_71.xlsx. If a salesperson is paid w dollars, he or she regards this as a benefit of w1/2 units. In addition, low effort costs the salesperson 0 benefit units, whereas high effort costs 50 benefit units. If a salesperson were to quit Fuller and work elsewhere, he or she could earn a benefit of 20 units. Fuller wants all salespeople to put forth a high level of effort. The question is how to minimize the cost of encouraging them to do so. The company cannot observe the level of effort put forth by a salesperson, but it can observe the size of his or her sales. Thus, the wage paid to the salesperson is completely determined by the size of the sale. This means that Fuller must determine w0, the wage paid for sales of 0; w5000, the wage paid for sales of 5000; and w50,000, the wage paid for sales of 50,000. These wages must be set so that the salespeople value the expected benefit from high effort more than quitting and more than low effort. Determine how to minimize the expected cost of ensuring that all salespeople put forth high effort. (This problem is an example of agency theory.)
A company manufacturers a product in the United States and sells it in England. The unit cost of manufacturing is 50. The current exchange rate (dollars per pound) is 1.221. The demand function, which indicates how many units the company can sell in England as a function of price (in pounds) is of the power type, with constant 27556759 and exponent 2.4. a. Develop a model for the companys profit (in dollars) as a function of the price it charges (in pounds). Then use a data table to find the profit-maximizing price to the nearest pound. b. If the exchange rate varies from its current value, does the profit-maximizing price increase or decrease? Does the maximum profit increase or decrease?
You are considering a 10-year investment project. At present, the expected cash flow each year is 10,000. Suppose, however, that each years cash flow is normally distributed with mean equal to last years actual cash flow and standard deviation 1000. For example, suppose that the actual cash flow in year 1 is 12,000. Then year 2 cash flow is normal with mean 12,000 and standard deviation 1000. Also, at the end of year 1, your best guess is that each later years expected cash flow will be 12,000. a. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV of this project. Assume that cash flows are discounted at a rate of 10% per year. b. Now assume that the project has an abandonment option. At the end of each year you can abandon the project for the value given in the file P11_60.xlsx. For example, suppose that year 1 cash flow is 4000. Then at the end of year 1, you expect cash flow for each remaining year to be 4000. This has an NPV of less than 62,000, so you should abandon the project and collect 62,000 at the end of year 1. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project with the abandonment option. How much would you pay for the abandonment option? (Hint: You can abandon a project at most once. So in year 5, for example, you abandon only if the sum of future expected NPVs is less than the year 5 abandonment value and the project has not yet been abandoned. Also, once you abandon the project, the actual cash flows for future years are zero. So in this case the future cash flows after abandonment should be zero in your model.)
Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the beginning of each year, you put half of your money under a mattress and invest the other half in Whitewater stock. During each year, there is a 40% chance that the Whitewater stock will double, and there is a 60% chance that you will lose half of your investment. To illustrate, if the stock doubles during the first year, you will have 3750 under the mattress and 3750 invested in Whitewater during year 2. You want to estimate your annual return over a 30-year period. If you end with F dollars, your annual return is (F/5000)1/30 1. For example, if you end with 100,000, your annual return is 201/30 1 = 0.105, or 10.5%. Run 1000 replications of an appropriate simulation. Based on the results, you can be 95% certain that your annual return will be between which two values?
The stocks in Example 7.9 are all positively correlated. What happens when they are negatively correlated? Answer for each of the following scenarios. In each case, two of the three correlations are the negatives of their original values. Discuss the differences between the optimal portfolios in these three scenarios. a. Change the signs of the correlations between stocks 1 and 2 and between stocks 1 and 3. (Here, stock 1 tends to go in a different direction from stocks 2 and 3.) b. Change the signs of the correlations between stocks 1 and 2 and between stocks 2 and 3. (Here, stock 2 tends to go in a different direction from stocks 1 and 3.) c. Change the signs of the correlations between stocks 1 and 3 and between stocks 2 and 3. (Here, stock 3 tends to go in a different direction from stocks 1 and 2.) EXAMPLE 7.9 PORTFOLIO SELECTION AT PERLMAN BROTHERS Perlman Brothers, an investment company, intends to invest a given amount of money in three stocks. From past data, the means and standard deviations of annual returns have been estimated as shown in Table 7.2. The correlations among the annual returns on the stocks are listed in Table 7.3. The company wants to find a minimum-variance portfolio that yields a mean annual return of at least 0.12.
A European put option allows an investor to sell a share of stock at the exercise price on the exercise data. For example, if the exercise price is 48, and the stock price is 45 on the exercise date, the investor can sell the stock for 48 and then immediately buy it back (that is, cover his position) for 45, making 3 profit. But if the stock price on the exercise date is greater than the exercise price, the option is worthless at that date. So for a put, the investor is hoping that the price of the stock decreases. Using the same parameters as in Example 11.7, find a fair price for a European put option. (Note: As discussed in the text, an actual put option is usually for 100 shares.)