Quest. Simulation) The mai..gement of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are as follows: Labour Transportation Cost ($) Purchase Cost Cost ($) Probability ($) Probability Probability 10 0.25 20 0.1 3 0.75 11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25 12 0.3 24 0.35 25 0.3

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Chapter15: Decision Analysis
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Problem 13P: The following profit payoff table was presented in Problem 1: The probabilities for the states of...
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Quest. Simulation)
The mai..gement of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per
unit for a new product. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the
transportation cost are as follows:
Labour
Purchase
Transportation
Cost ($)
Cost
Cost ($)
Probability
($)
Probability
Probability
10
0.25
20
0.1
3
0.75
11
0.45
22
0.25
0.25
12
0.3
24
0.35
25
0.3
Assume that these are the only costs and that the selling price for the product will be $45 per unit.
a. Provide the base (most likely)-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the profit per unit.
b. Set up intervals of random numbers that can be used to randomly generate the three cost
components, and find the average profit based on 10 simulation trials. Show your simulation
model (including the formulas sed) as developed with Excel.
c. Using the random numbers 0.3726, 0.5839, and 0.8275, calculate the profit per unit. (
d. Management believes the project may not be profitable if the profit per unit is less than $5.
Explain how simulation can be used to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than
$5.(
Transcribed Image Text:Quest. Simulation) The mai..gement of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are as follows: Labour Purchase Transportation Cost ($) Cost Cost ($) Probability ($) Probability Probability 10 0.25 20 0.1 3 0.75 11 0.45 22 0.25 0.25 12 0.3 24 0.35 25 0.3 Assume that these are the only costs and that the selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. a. Provide the base (most likely)-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the profit per unit. b. Set up intervals of random numbers that can be used to randomly generate the three cost components, and find the average profit based on 10 simulation trials. Show your simulation model (including the formulas sed) as developed with Excel. c. Using the random numbers 0.3726, 0.5839, and 0.8275, calculate the profit per unit. ( d. Management believes the project may not be profitable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Explain how simulation can be used to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5.(
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