Question 1) Assume that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.4 if it is raining today, and assume that the probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.8 if it is clear today. Also assume that these probabilities do not change if information is also provided about the weather before today. a) Formulate the evolution of the weather as a Markov chain by defining its states and giving its (one-step) transition matrix. b) Draw the state transition diagram for this chain. c) Calculate the probability that it will rain three days from today given that it is raining today.

Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
Publisher:David Poole
Chapter3: Matrices
Section3.7: Applications
Problem 12EQ: 12. Robots have been programmed to traverse the maze shown in Figure 3.28 and at each junction...
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Question 1)
Assume that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.4 if it is raining today, and assume that the
probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.8 if it is clear today. Also assume that these
probabilities do not change if information is also provided about the weather before today.
a) Formulate the evolution of the weather as a Markov chain by defining its states and
giving its (one-step) transition matrix.
b) Draw the state transition diagram for this chain.
c) Calculate the probability that it will rain three days from today given that it is raining
today.
d) Calculate the probability that it will not rain four days from today given that it is raining
today.
Transcribed Image Text:Question 1) Assume that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.4 if it is raining today, and assume that the probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.8 if it is clear today. Also assume that these probabilities do not change if information is also provided about the weather before today. a) Formulate the evolution of the weather as a Markov chain by defining its states and giving its (one-step) transition matrix. b) Draw the state transition diagram for this chain. c) Calculate the probability that it will rain three days from today given that it is raining today. d) Calculate the probability that it will not rain four days from today given that it is raining today.
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