Question 3 a) Sara and Alfred estimated the following model: EDt =B₁ + B₂GDPt - B3EPt + ut (1) where ED₁ = Energy demand in year t, GDP₁ =GDP in year t, and EP = Energy price in year t, the objective of the analysis is to study the effect of Energy demand. They transform (1) and estimate ED₁/GDP = B₁ (1/GDP₁) +B₂ - ß3 (EP/GDP) + ut/GDPt (2) The empirical results based on the data for 1986-2015 were as follows: ED₁ = 40.15 +0.451 GDP + 0.6352 EPt Se: (32.11) (0.5432) (0.3245) ED/GDP = 18.22 (1/GDP) + 0.789 +0.3512 (EPŁ/GDPŁ) R² = 0.91 Se: (32.14) (1.2343) (0.6654) i) What assumption is made by the authors in the second function and why do they derive the second function? R² = 0.992 ii) Compare the results of the two regressions(at the 5% level). Has the transformation of the original model improved the results, that is, reduced the estimated standard errors? Why or why not? iii) Can you compare the two R2 values? Why or why not?

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Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
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Chapter5: Business And Economic Forecasting
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Question 3
a) Sara and Alfred estimated the following model:
EDt = B₁ + B₂GDPt - B3EPt + ut
(1)
where ED₁ = Energy demand in year t, GDP =GDP in year t, and EP = Energy price in year t,
the objective of the analysis is to study the effect of Energy demand. They transform (1) and
estimate
ED/GDP = B₁ (1/GDPt) +B₂ - B3 (EP/GDP) + ut/GDPt
(2)
The empirical results based on the data for 1986–2015 were as follows:
EDt = 40.15 +0.451 GDP + 0.6352 EP
Se: (32.11) (0.5432) (0.3245)
ED/GDP = 18.22 (1/GDP) +0.789 +0.3512 (EP/GDP)
Se:
(32.14)
(1.2343) (0.6654)
R² = 0.91
i) What assumption is made by the authors in the second function and why do they derive the
second function?
R² = 0.992
ii) Compare the results of the two regressions(at the 5% level). Has the transformation of the
original model improved the results, that is, reduced the estimated standard errors? Why or
why not?
iii) Can you compare the two R² values? Why or why not?
b) Explain the 5 reasons for variability of disturbance (explain each reason with one example-
don't use examples of slides).
Transcribed Image Text:Question 3 a) Sara and Alfred estimated the following model: EDt = B₁ + B₂GDPt - B3EPt + ut (1) where ED₁ = Energy demand in year t, GDP =GDP in year t, and EP = Energy price in year t, the objective of the analysis is to study the effect of Energy demand. They transform (1) and estimate ED/GDP = B₁ (1/GDPt) +B₂ - B3 (EP/GDP) + ut/GDPt (2) The empirical results based on the data for 1986–2015 were as follows: EDt = 40.15 +0.451 GDP + 0.6352 EP Se: (32.11) (0.5432) (0.3245) ED/GDP = 18.22 (1/GDP) +0.789 +0.3512 (EP/GDP) Se: (32.14) (1.2343) (0.6654) R² = 0.91 i) What assumption is made by the authors in the second function and why do they derive the second function? R² = 0.992 ii) Compare the results of the two regressions(at the 5% level). Has the transformation of the original model improved the results, that is, reduced the estimated standard errors? Why or why not? iii) Can you compare the two R² values? Why or why not? b) Explain the 5 reasons for variability of disturbance (explain each reason with one example- don't use examples of slides).
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