Recall that the variance of activities 2, 5, 8, and 11 are 1, 1/9, 16/9, and 4, respectively. Thus, the project completion time along the critical path is normally distributed with mean 25 weeks and standard deviation 2.62 weeks. You may need Appendix A of the text in order to answer the following questions: 1. True/False/Uncertain: If I have questions, I will get in touch, either by email, at Office Hours, or at Problem Solving Sessions. A) True 2. What is the expected project completion time? A) 0 weeks B) 1 week C) 41 weeks D) 25 weeks 3. What is the standard deviation of the project completion time? A) 0 weeks B) 1 week C) 2.62 weeks D) 25 weeks 4. What is the probability that the project takes more than 25 weeks? [This is meant to be as easy as it seems – not tricky] A) 0.2 B) 0.25 C) 0.5 D) 0.8 5. What is the probability that the project takes less than 27 weeks? A) 1 B) 0 C) 0.2764 D) 0.7764
Recall that the variance of activities 2, 5, 8, and 11 are 1, 1/9, 16/9, and 4, respectively. Thus, the project
completion time along the critical path is
deviation 2.62 weeks. You may need Appendix A of the text in order to answer the following questions:
1. True/False/Uncertain: If I have questions, I will get in touch, either by email, at Office Hours, or
at Problem Solving Sessions.
A) True
2. What is the expected project completion time?
A) 0 weeks
B) 1 week
C) 41 weeks
D) 25 weeks
3. What is the standard deviation of the project completion time?
A) 0 weeks
B) 1 week
C) 2.62 weeks
D) 25 weeks
4. What is the probability that the project takes more than 25 weeks? [This is meant to be as easy
as it seems – not tricky]
A) 0.2
B) 0.25
C) 0.5
D) 0.8
5. What is the probability that the project takes less than 27 weeks?
A) 1
B) 0
C) 0.2764
D) 0.7764
What is the probability that the project takes less than 27.62 weeks?
A) 0.8413
B) 1
C) 0.6826
D) 0.3413
7. What is the probability that the project takes less than 23 weeks?
A) 0.7736
B) 0.7236
C) 0.2236
D) 0
8. Suppose a potential customer asks you for an
certainty. That is, let’s compute a 90% confidence interval! Recall from your BIT 2405 or
statistics class class that the area of the right-hand tail in the standard normal distribution above
1.645 is 5%. By symmetry, the area of the left-hand tail of the standard normal distribution
below -1.645 is also 5%. So: between -1.645 standard deviations below the mean and 1.645
standard deviations above the mean lies 90% of the area of a normal distribution. If the
standard deviation of the project completion time is 2.62 weeks, then 1.645 standard deviations
is: 2.62*1.645. Lastly, recall that a confidence interval is always: point estimate +/- margin of
error. The point estimate of completion time is the expected completion time, and the margin of
error is 1.645 standard deviations above and below the point estimate.
Your response to the potential customer is: “I am 90% certain that the project will be completed
after _____ weeks and before ____ weeks.”
A) 23.36; 26.65
B) 20.69; 29.31
C) 22.38; 27.62
D) 22.5; 27.5
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